{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VLWGV62PH5",
  "slug": "cear-governor-election-winner",
  "question": "Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "brazil",
    "ceará",
    "gubernatorial",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the outcome of the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election, resolving October 4, 2026. Each Polymarket contract prices a single candidate's binary win probability; together they form a mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive set. All contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official results from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court. Placeholder slots signal that the candidate field remains open pending formal registration deadlines.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-2SCLPS63G3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.64,
    "implied_probability": 0.64,
    "as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VLWGV62PH5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0098859230696a9dcaa04f3bddea2ec8c154a4ae5e21de56d99ea2ebd5430755",
      "question": "Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?",
      "description": "The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensu",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Elmano de Freitas: The Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (TSE) official results from the October 4, 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election, or October 25, 2026 runoff if required, resolve the named candidate's victory status by June 30, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
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          {
            "name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.37,
      "implied_probability": 0.37,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 433.51515,
      "volume_total_usd": 41714.13957400001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question": "Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Ciro Gomes: The Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (TSE) official results from the October 4, 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election, or October 25, 2026 runoff if required, resolve the named candidate's victory status by June 30, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.64,
      "implied_probability": 0.64,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FGW3V38K90",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VLWGV62PH5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa4508f8fb7960ab7c1aa16f0480e3156d43245e8cba647ab89699ba2513ec21c",
      "question": "Will Eduardo Girão win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?",
      "description": "The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensu",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Eduardo Girão: The Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (TSE) official results from the October 4, 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election, or October 25, 2026 runoff if required, resolve the named candidate's victory status by June 30, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
        "sources": [
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          {
            "name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "caps": [],
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      "price_as_of": "2026-09-01T04:00:49.498Z",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-59K3LN7HY3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VLWGV62PH5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4dc3f73d4e21634aaef2f2e183f94e8a970c38cefc7721553eba954b06e0c177",
      "question": "Will Capitão Wagner win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?",
      "description": "The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensu",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Capitão Wagner: The Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (TSE) official results from the October 4, 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election, or October 25, 2026 runoff if required, resolve the named candidate's victory status by June 30, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).",
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        "source_citation": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VLWGV62PH5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4ab02e9673ead5ff7a42373b39c05f8442078872f47372d1348913531d7404f2",
      "question": "Will Roberto Cláudio win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?",
      "description": "The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensu",
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      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Roberto Cláudio: The Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (TSE) official results from the October 4, 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election, or October 25, 2026 runoff if required, resolve the named candidate's victory status by June 30, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
        "sources": [
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          {
            "name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-05T22:01:14.713Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 1000,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VLWGV62PH5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x31c338d70373bea43745040126a1418245fddf34e986c14bd5ed522fb6a4586b",
      "question": "Will someone else win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Other: The Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (TSE) official results from the October 4, 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election, or October 25, 2026 runoff if required, resolve the named candidate's victory status by June 30, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FNC7ZNSDH2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VLWGV62PH5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xca6c691779e26d5971b8093def659d93c92b12f1d863def474f039cf03c0f7e3",
      "question": "Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?",
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      "close_at": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YLF9PLV239",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-10-04T06:00:00Z",
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