{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-WBVLJ8RNS2",
  "slug": "chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31",
  "question": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard maximum score, December 31, 2026",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      1500,
      1550
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1500,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1550,
        "prob": 18
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1600,
        "prob": 9
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1650,
        "prob": 10
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1700,
        "prob": 8
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-benchmarks",
    "model-performance",
    "chatbot-arena",
    "tech",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether any AI model will reach discrete Overall Arena Score thresholds on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard by December 31, 2026. The five Polymarket contracts form a strike ladder at 1500, 1550, 1600, 1650, and 1700, pricing binary outcomes at each level. Higher-strike contracts imply lower probability, creating an implicit term structure of AI capability expectations. Resolution is determined by Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle referencing the Text Arena tab score section at lmarena.ai.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-21F5GGFW21",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.17,
    "implied_probability": 0.17
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YGJHSLV0L0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WBVLJ8RNS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x00339a4be87086b6304fedd07db15457d40db9daf6849bf06c4c74c3eeb59092",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1500 by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↑ 1500: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Text Arena tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) Score section determines if any model reaches at least 1500 points by February 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-10T00:53:13Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 33754.77836,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1500,
      "question_id": "CMX-B1B43DAF6A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "chatbot arena highest",
        "chatbot-arena",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-21F5GGFW21",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WBVLJ8RNS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4669581cb5c701fd3632a5529ee702353d91d3d4320aba33a31683b388b83869",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↑ 1550: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Text Arena tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) Score section determines if any model reaches at least 1500 points by February 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 41958.115816000005,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1550,
      "question_id": "CMX-BE788425E6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "chatbot arena highest",
        "chatbot-arena",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CN0B8Z2HC7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WBVLJ8RNS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8f81a4e47bb18d14fb067d35d370239ecac9f7d7c85971a28efcf7c44e13dd35",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↑ 1600: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Text Arena tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) Score section determines if any model reaches at least 1500 points by February 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 900.92,
      "volume_total_usd": 21656.138273,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1600,
      "question_id": "CMX-503F9DAA30",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "chatbot arena highest",
        "chatbot-arena",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-65TNX4VB93",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WBVLJ8RNS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x572c136f2a0ec98f859f795b101261aaa5eb5f1ab1cb12968c6dfa7df15508d7",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↑ 1650: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Text Arena tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) Score section determines if any model reaches at least 1500 points by February 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8550.014172,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1650,
      "question_id": "CMX-6A02167286",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "chatbot arena highest",
        "chatbot-arena",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NZJT6CF876",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WBVLJ8RNS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0f051e96748d18e52a7e32f6bf3662ddf69a156e4aa34db8e283899fde69489e",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↑ 1700: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Text Arena tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) Score section determines if any model reaches at least 1500 points by February 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.032,
      "implied_probability": 0.032,
      "volume_24h_usd": 20,
      "volume_total_usd": 8874.611359999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1700,
      "question_id": "CMX-00A289DC2C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "chatbot arena highest",
        "chatbot-arena",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YGJHSLV0L0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-02-10T00:53:13Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-WBVLJ8RNS2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}