{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-WBVLJ8RNS2",
  "slug": "chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31",
  "question": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard maximum score, December 31, 2026",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      1520,
      1530
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1500,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1510,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1520,
        "prob": 58
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1530,
        "prob": 37
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1540,
        "prob": 28
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1550,
        "prob": 17
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1600,
        "prob": 10
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1650,
        "prob": 6
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1700,
        "prob": 3
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-benchmarking",
    "chatbot-arena",
    "ai-performance",
    "tech",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether any AI model reaches discrete Overall Arena Score thresholds on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard by December 31, 2026. Nine strike levels span 1500 to 1700, forming a ladder of binary outcomes. Higher strikes are structurally nested: a YES at 1600 implies YES at all lower thresholds. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing the Chatbot Arena Text Arena score section.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-ZGGMBBS999",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.38,
    "implied_probability": 0.38,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DN9ZWP8N96",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WBVLJ8RNS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x61d075fa6af5a2931d3327f7f26d2b6199fc0a469c8feda8e0bc5e0b8123e74f",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1510 by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↑ 1510: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Text Arena score section resolves whether any listed model reaches at least 1550 points by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-28T02:36:42Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 77,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2903.6749000000004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1510,
      "question_id": "CMX-0E270A0057",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "chatbot arena",
        "chatbot arena overall",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L4KN5LX8Y7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WBVLJ8RNS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xee96762c2087b4be3fb73e66714b374ef302ce4fec2b508c93c42243a3a9c1cb",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↑ 1520: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Text Arena score section resolves whether any listed model reaches at least 1550 points by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
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            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 77,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.937,
      "implied_probability": 0.937,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T03:00:28.792Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 32246.15178,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1520,
      "question_id": "CMX-FD601D93F0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "chatbot arena",
        "chatbot arena overall",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZGGMBBS999",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WBVLJ8RNS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc553c891e8f201629db93b9bd2fcfbcf22c3cefc99edb852e58ff305d73a02af",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↑ 1530: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Text Arena score section resolves whether any listed model reaches at least 1550 points by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 77,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.38,
      "implied_probability": 0.38,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 212.7,
      "volume_total_usd": 12407.767231000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1530,
      "question_id": "CMX-8284E20055",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "chatbot arena",
        "chatbot arena overall",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PC1VMNYV14",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WBVLJ8RNS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0fe55fedea685f945d84614f47516732e7c95ccc890b9682b2eeb00a8c23ee2f",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↑ 1540: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Text Arena score section resolves whether any listed model reaches at least 1550 points by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 77,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 81.489618,
      "volume_total_usd": 4778.504953,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1540,
      "question_id": "CMX-9C5CCB56B7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "chatbot arena",
        "chatbot arena overall",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YGJHSLV0L0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WBVLJ8RNS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x00339a4be87086b6304fedd07db15457d40db9daf6849bf06c4c74c3eeb59092",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1500 by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↑ 1500: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Text Arena score section resolves whether any listed model reaches at least 1550 points by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-10T00:53:13Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 77,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 33754.77836,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1500,
      "question_id": "CMX-B1B43DAF6A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "chatbot arena",
        "chatbot arena overall",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-21F5GGFW21",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WBVLJ8RNS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4669581cb5c701fd3632a5529ee702353d91d3d4320aba33a31683b388b83869",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanen",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "↑ 1550: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Text Arena score section resolves whether any listed model reaches at least 1550 points by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 77,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 221.892856,
      "volume_total_usd": 51993.75274899998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1550,
      "question_id": "CMX-BE788425E6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "chatbot arena",
        "chatbot arena overall",
        "llm"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CN0B8Z2HC7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WBVLJ8RNS2",
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