{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MQJRBWKBD6",
  "slug": "china-x-taiwan-military-clash-before-2027",
  "question": "Will there be a military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "cross-strait-relations",
    "military-conflict",
    "china-taiwan",
    "2026",
    "armed-escalation"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks the probability of a verified military force exchange between China and Taiwan before January 1, 2027. A single platform, Polymarket, prices this as a binary outcome. Resolution depends on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle confirming credible reports of direct military engagement. No corroborating platform structures this event at a rate level or margin, limiting cross-platform signal.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-V8LL2NF1Q8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.071,
    "implied_probability": 0.071
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V8LL2NF1Q8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MQJRBWKBD6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4c80df6f557bb0b9de08c0301ebdce500dd9bdc58400d9269fb8fab1709ed584",
      "question": "China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile la",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves this market based on verified reports of military force exchange between People's Republic of China and Taiwan forces through December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.071,
      "implied_probability": 0.071,
      "volume_24h_usd": 17074.23904800001,
      "volume_total_usd": 3097560.173785009,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china",
        "china taiwan military",
        "conflict",
        "geopolitics",
        "taiwan"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-MQJRBWKBD6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}