{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RY5PDHDZD9",
  "slug": "christine-lagarde-out-as-ecb-president-in-2026",
  "question": "Will Christine Lagarde no longer be serving as ECB president by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "ecb-leadership",
    "christine-lagarde",
    "european-politics",
    "central-banking",
    "2026-resolution"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Christine Lagarde will depart the ECB presidency before end of 2026. Resolution depends on official announcements from Lagarde or the European Central Bank directly. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle settles the binary outcome against those institutional statements. No cross-platform contrast exists; only one market is listed here.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-HKXRF7V0X7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.24,
    "implied_probability": 0.24
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HKXRF7V0X7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RY5PDHDZD9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x47a99f8df527cbf1e19395681e761d3b8e720402eeb103037be35f78b4141517",
      "question": "Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christine Lagarde ceases to be the President of the European Central Bank for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Lagarde's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reportin",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official announcements from Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank regarding her departure from the ECB presidency before December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christine Lagarde ceases to be the President of the European Central Bank for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Lagarde's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Christine Lagarde",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the European Central Bank",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 55,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.24,
      "implied_probability": 0.24,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 17406.161411,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6AEFAF9DAF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "central bank",
        "christine lagarde",
        "christine lagarde european central bank",
        "ecb",
        "leadership"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-RY5PDHDZD9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}