{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5QHXW1L444",
  "slug": "clacton-by-election-margin-of-victory-20260709153837820",
  "question": "Will the Clacton by-election margin of victory be less than 5 percentage points?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "uk-politics",
    "by-election",
    "clacton",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the margin of victory in the 2026 Clacton by-election. Polymarket structures the event as discrete margin tiers: below 20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, and 60% or more. Tail contracts cover a Count Binface win or any other outcome. All six markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using the absolute percentage-point gap between the top two candidates.",
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JGTM4G2KL9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.34
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5QHXW1L444",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x37c67f4fa2db4b42b87262e034ffbc6f8eeba5cc3f4f2dee222311ad199a6139",
      "question": "Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?",
      "description": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes eac",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Farage 60%+: The margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified by-election, measured as the absolute percentage-point difference in valid votes, resolves by June 30, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
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            "url": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
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            "name": "Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/)",
            "url": null,
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
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      "implied_probability": 0.34,
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      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?",
      "description": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes eac",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Farage 40-60%: The margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified by-election, measured as the absolute percentage-point difference in valid votes, resolves by June 30, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.338,
      "implied_probability": 0.338,
      "volume_24h_usd": 41.1,
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      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TX2YL3XJN9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5QHXW1L444",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3a136aaf6933e2c25c7fa19039b1dd5e2d5c7f020a3aaa33be87b783d4796633",
      "question": "Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?",
      "description": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes eac",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Farage 20-40%: The margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified by-election, measured as the absolute percentage-point difference in valid votes, resolves by June 30, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "tendringdc.gov.uk",
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.235,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 77.376594,
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      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DZHB2T4N42",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5QHXW1L444",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0a8703cb03847d281f8b47ba71a7c481bde50efbf3ead76dcb28be5267970baf",
      "question": "Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by less than 20%?",
      "description": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes eac",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Farage <20%: The margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified by-election, measured as the absolute percentage-point difference in valid votes, resolves by June 30, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.072,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 106.245475,
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      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 20,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5JW09HF2P8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5QHXW1L444",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb79c533f3d4710a9a3f604ddcb41c62f2fc3130083a15218b76155e0a09a76cc",
      "question": "Will Count Binface win the 2026 Clacton by-election by any margin?",
      "description": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes eac",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Count Binface: The margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified by-election, measured as the absolute percentage-point difference in valid votes, resolves by June 30, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/)",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.048,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 115.1,
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      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "clacton",
        "count binface clacton",
        "count-binface",
        "uk-politics"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5QHXW1L444",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcdf3b9b20ca620b88f6ffb7fb5c72e3068700fb09e9506b5561384a12451b3fd",
      "question": "Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Clacton by-election?",
      "description": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes eac",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Other: The margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified by-election, measured as the absolute percentage-point difference in valid votes, resolves by June 30, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "tendringdc.gov.uk",
            "url": "https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "parliament.uk",
            "url": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "tendringdc.gov.uk",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.046,
      "implied_probability": 0.046,
      "volume_24h_usd": 58.715111,
      "volume_total_usd": 6096.909032999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "by-election",
        "clacton",
        "clacton election outcome",
        "uk-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-5QHXW1L444",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}