{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4MJPK2KLH9",
  "slug": "copper-cable-hit-with-secpt-232-tariffs-by-20260721191458000",
  "question": "Will copper cable be hit with Section 232 tariffs by a specific date?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "trump",
    "trade-policy",
    "section-232-tariffs",
    "commodities",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether copper cable becomes subject to Section 232 tariffs under U.S. trade law. The 2026 contract prices near-term executive action; the 2027 contract prices a 12-month extension of that same window. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The December 31, 2026 close date is the authoritative cutoff for the nearer contract.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-DB398DFWX2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.33,
    "implied_probability": 0.33
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GT9DY7L6D2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4MJPK2KLH9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x505fb00f89853e24691ff6bfcbe979dd5f99abc819db0c752cdfad96c72e0bf4",
      "question": "Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 targets insulated copper conductors, over 600V up to 1,000V, not fitted with connectors.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a legally operative Section 232 instrument subjects all articles under this line to a duty above 0%, a tariff-rate quota, an absolute quota, or another quantitative restriction by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, legally operative Section 232 instruments include but are not limited to: a presidential proclamation, a Commerce-USTR determination under that p",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 targets insulated copper conductors, over 600V up to 1,000V, not fitted with connectors.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a legally operative Section 232 instrument subjects all articles under this line to a duty above 0%, a tariff-rate quota, an absolute quota, or another quantitative restriction by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, legally operative Section 232 instruments include but are not limited to: a presidential proclamation, a Commerce-USTR determination under that proclamation's clause 11 process, another Federal Register or chapter 99 action under Section 232 authority, or an Act of Congress.\n\nA qualifying instrument may name the line itself or any broader provision that fully includes it (e.g., tariff line 8544.49.30, subheading 8544.49, or heading 8544). If USITC renumbers the line, its successor will count the same way.\n\nA qualifying instrument must be enacted, signed, or otherwise put into legal operation by the specified date, regardless of whether the instrument stipulates a later date of enforcement.\n\nTariff imposition will qualify regardless of whether there exist 0% in-quota rates, country carve-outs, metal-content thresholds, phased effective dates, or other conditions.\n\nOnly tariffs imposed on HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 will qualify. Coverage of only a subset or end use (e.g., wind-turbine or data-center cable only), additions limited to sister line 8544.49.3080, investigation steps, reports, proposals, or announcements without a signed operative instrument, one chamber passage, instruments whose only effect is a 0% rate or an exemption, and tariffs under any other authority (e.g., Section 301, IEEPA, AD/CVD, reciprocal) will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the US government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "US government",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 5520.148035,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-28116ABEE8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cable",
        "copper",
        "copper cable",
        "section 232",
        "tariffs",
        "trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DB398DFWX2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4MJPK2KLH9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4d6c6ff42ea435092695670bffee22e8c2128031d78dc96edc17c48c5954b0f3",
      "question": "Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 targets insulated copper conductors, over 600V up to 1,000V, not fitted with connectors.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a legally operative Section 232 instrument subjects all articles under this line to a duty above 0%, a tariff-rate quota, an absolute quota, or another quantitative restriction by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, legally operative Section 232 instruments include but are not limited to: a presidential proclamation, a Commerce-USTR determination under that p",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 targets insulated copper conductors, over 600V up to 1,000V, not fitted with connectors.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a legally operative Section 232 instrument subjects all articles under this line to a duty above 0%, a tariff-rate quota, an absolute quota, or another quantitative restriction by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, legally operative Section 232 instruments include but are not limited to: a presidential proclamation, a Commerce-USTR determination under that proclamation's clause 11 process, another Federal Register or chapter 99 action under Section 232 authority, or an Act of Congress.\n\nA qualifying instrument may name the line itself or any broader provision that fully includes it (e.g., tariff line 8544.49.30, subheading 8544.49, or heading 8544). If USITC renumbers the line, its successor will count the same way.\n\nA qualifying instrument must be enacted, signed, or otherwise put into legal operation by the specified date, regardless of whether the instrument stipulates a later date of enforcement.\n\nTariff imposition will qualify regardless of whether there exist 0% in-quota rates, country carve-outs, metal-content thresholds, phased effective dates, or other conditions.\n\nOnly tariffs imposed on HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 will qualify. Coverage of only a subset or end use (e.g., wind-turbine or data-center cable only), additions limited to sister line 8544.49.3080, investigation steps, reports, proposals, or announcements without a signed operative instrument, one chamber passage, instruments whose only effect is a 0% rate or an exemption, and tariffs under any other authority (e.g., Section 301, IEEPA, AD/CVD, reciprocal) will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the US government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "US government",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.33,
      "implied_probability": 0.33,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 7431.3774,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0DE4004C10",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cable",
        "copper",
        "copper cable",
        "section 232",
        "tariffs",
        "trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-4MJPK2KLH9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}