{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-YHCG7LHJV1",
  "slug": "core-cpi-yoy-july-2026-20260714151811920",
  "question": "Will Core CPI year-over-year inflation be measured in July 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "inflation",
    "core-cpi",
    "us-economic-data",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Bureau of Labor Statistics Core CPI year-over-year print for July 2026, released in August 2026. All ten contracts are Polymarket binary strikes spanning from 2.2% or below to 3.1% or above, forming a discrete probability distribution over the rate outcome. Together they imply a market-consensus probability density across the 2.2%-to-3.1% range. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using the official BLS Consumer Price Index report as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-RFWJMGRPV2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.25,
    "implied_probability": 0.25
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G9BVX9W9D4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YHCG7LHJV1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1792ecdeab6f6e4df505dd31aa114b99996c725c0a5066d87db5dc1d04c4fddc",
      "question": "Will Core CPI YoY be 2.2% or less in July?",
      "description": "This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.\n\nThis market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "≤2.2%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index report for July 2026, released in August, determines the 12-month core CPI-U percentage change.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.\n\nThis market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.\n\nIf the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "BLS Consumer Price Index report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official monthly BLS CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.021,
      "implied_probability": 0.021,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3234.349822,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 2.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-2C76F36ED5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us-economics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-195NYFQMQ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YHCG7LHJV1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x746a051057a55121808a96ccb80358d046f85467dee63e88af6ab3671e8dc3ba",
      "question": "Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in July?",
      "description": "This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.\n\nThis market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "2.3%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index report for July 2026, released in August, determines the 12-month core CPI-U percentage change.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.\n\nThis market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.\n\nIf the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "BLS Consumer Price Index report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official monthly BLS CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.009,
      "implied_probability": 0.009,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 471.98884,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 2.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-711DFDC543",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us-economics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RFWJMGRPV2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YHCG7LHJV1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x24be811a567f2588fb7a739afe4cd691e8d129cfabb3bb05f2f935a0b1538042",
      "question": "Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?",
      "description": "This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.\n\nThis market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "2.4%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index report for July 2026, released in August, determines the 12-month core CPI-U percentage change.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.\n\nThis market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.\n\nIf the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "BLS Consumer Price Index report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official monthly BLS CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.25,
      "implied_probability": 0.25,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1297.8295029999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 25703.90279800007,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 2.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-CBE1A2AC5E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us-economics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1V8CN80J00",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YHCG7LHJV1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xab0680169ed541995347d1f77b0ef8ece4694b0e07a5af914c0db3fc8cb495d0",
      "question": "Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in July?",
      "description": "This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.\n\nThis market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "2.5%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index report for July 2026, released in August, determines the 12-month core CPI-U percentage change.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.\n\nThis market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.\n\nIf the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "BLS Consumer Price Index report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official monthly BLS CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.46,
      "implied_probability": 0.46,
      "volume_24h_usd": 176.143093,
      "volume_total_usd": 8374.980415,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 2.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-4AFFD91D9C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us-economics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZNZ323HTV4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YHCG7LHJV1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8dda28c1e56a6bdbf8f5f42c7bacb0c67dfcfb75e52581b89ace751730681ba1",
      "question": "Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in July?",
      "description": "This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.\n\nThis market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "2.6%: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index report for July 2026, released in August, determines the 12-month core CPI-U percentage change.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-12T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.\n\nThis market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.\n\nIf the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "BLS Consumer Price Index report",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official monthly BLS CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.064,
      "implied_probability": 0.064,
      "volume_24h_usd": 76.92,
      "volume_total_usd": 6248.931294000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 2.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-411689B0BD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "core cpi yoy",
        "cpi",
        "inflation",
        "us-economics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KQFM6BQ1B0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YHCG7LHJV1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x84b524a1d7b4e6cdcb0adab289eeeec13adaebf9d2e170878e0ac73d0e6d9984",
      "question": "Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in July?",
      "description": "This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.\n\nThis market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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