{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2179JPSW74",
  "slug": "crude-oil-all-time-high-by",
  "question": "Will crude oil reach an all-time high by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "commodities",
    "energy-prices",
    "oil-markets",
    "2026",
    "price-records"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether crude oil will set a new all-time price high by four sequential 2026 deadlines. Each contract is a binary outcome on the same underlying threshold, with later expiries implying wider windows for the event to occur. All four resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Traders can express term-structure views by comparing implied probabilities across the May, June, September, and December contracts.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-X8KFWR1V47",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.019,
    "implied_probability": 0.019,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T08:00:41.128Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N9MGF700N2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2179JPSW74",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xad11c116316e3230412ddfc829ede72f78941986247df4f2eb08c48aba8747c9",
      "question": "Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the ne",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-30T14:17:04Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily \"High\" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "cmegroup.com",
            "url": "https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "CME Group",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "CME Group",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 448552.28127800015,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "crude oil",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x806fb0e989b077af7566e558cab7379688c7a77f096dc770ab7fae8b2b87f879",
      "question": "Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the ne",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T20:44:37Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily \"High\" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html",
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            "name": "cmegroup.com",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html)",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 342416.6721520003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commodity",
        "crude oil",
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        "wti"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X8KFWR1V47",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2179JPSW74",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6a18969bc603992de4c5c9d53c2881e1378ac193cdad01e7f932afa7fdc4af3e",
      "question": "Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the ne",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily \"High\" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html)",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.019,
      "implied_probability": 0.019,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T08:00:41.128Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 23796.33829,
      "volume_total_usd": 1490399.668845,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "crude oil",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6N6YGSN5Y3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2179JPSW74",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8a5c0b5fc339f2dbaf584def66bcf8bff94d91f0250562e452782fed3d18f821",
      "question": "Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the ne",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily \"High\" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.",
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      "implied_probability": 0.1,
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      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
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      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-30T14:17:04Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-2179JPSW74",
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}