{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KMKVM32L23",
  "slug": "cxmt-ipo-closing-market-cap-20260629165331522",
  "question": "Will CXMT's IPO closing market cap be resolved by 2026?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "finance",
    "business",
    "ipo-valuation",
    "cxmt",
    "market-cap"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track CXMT's closing market capitalization on its IPO day, contingent on a listing occurring by December 31, 2026. Seven contiguous yuan-denominated strike tiers span sub-250 billion to 400 billion-plus, with a separate binary contract covering the no-IPO scenario. All eight contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, using outstanding shares multiplied by the first-day closing price. A key caveat is that the no-IPO contract creates a structural hedge: if CXMT does not list by the deadline, all cap-tier contracts would void.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-NQT4SM9CC5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PX9VK25ZD0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KMKVM32L23",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x534794f0a85823ac9539d982720d9d071ff0f5121af8b29b6a4a7d363cf87207",
      "question": "Will CXMT’s market cap be less than 250 billion yuan at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<250B yuan: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by official closing share price in its pricing currency, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.\n\nThe number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official company filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "SEC filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 55,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 4919.022653,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 250000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-EEED07B680",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china",
        "cxmt",
        "cxmt cap ipo",
        "ipo"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V8WJM0HRD6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KMKVM32L23",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0c20005f3f317752e5ed0a6c00d079350094e9d10fa4ed5b80462e38b9613ed3",
      "question": "Will CXMT’s market cap be between 250 billion and 280 billion yuan at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "250–280B yuan: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by official closing share price in its pricing currency, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.\n\nThe number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official company filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "SEC filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 55,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1027.31685,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F12CD3380F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china",
        "cxmt",
        "cxmt cap ipo",
        "ipo"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1XR7YKDYG0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KMKVM32L23",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x02a62a3d6ff264498cbaeb1131c5e96d73ee3acc0b9ea4bede1253f41bd46485",
      "question": "Will CXMT’s market cap be between 280 billion and 310 billion yuan at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "280–310B yuan: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by official closing share price in its pricing currency, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.\n\nThe number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official company filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "SEC filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 55,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1255.43305,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-43FF77BACA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china",
        "cxmt",
        "cxmt cap ipo",
        "ipo"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9XDTNKX8C8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KMKVM32L23",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfd71b6b96ef7111fc0c6809c9810d55ff1eb3e9ca50ea1c458ca21f2b1f63399",
      "question": "Will CXMT’s market cap be between 310 billion and 340 billion yuan at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "310–340B yuan: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by official closing share price in its pricing currency, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.\n\nThe number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official company filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "SEC filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 55,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1344.783926,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F185EE71A5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china",
        "cxmt",
        "cxmt cap ipo",
        "ipo"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B33688SJY7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KMKVM32L23",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xce8b0756b9c54fc876e32fabc898c3a2cc1c440bff61b9bd0377ab7350d9a72a",
      "question": "Will CXMT’s market cap be between 340 billion and 370 billion yuan at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "340–370B yuan: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by official closing share price in its pricing currency, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.\n\nThe number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official company filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "SEC filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 55,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2051.347882,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6B4E76702A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china",
        "cxmt",
        "cxmt cap ipo",
        "ipo"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3SWN6CTL26",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KMKVM32L23",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1b520831122ef558adb8636261b26f23948518e5f6d0d8e5412f130833994dca",
      "question": "Will CXMT’s market cap be between 370 billion and 400 billion yuan at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "370–400B yuan: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by official closing share price in its pricing currency, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.\n\nThe number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official company filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "SEC filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 55,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 12.01,
      "volume_total_usd": 2745.9401060000005,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-DBB597B315",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china",
        "cxmt",
        "cxmt cap ipo",
        "ipo"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NQT4SM9CC5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KMKVM32L23",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5ce196797404d39840201bfa358417c12df1d06ae930a31e082e40cd6687ec29",
      "question": "Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "400B+ yuan: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by official closing share price in its pricing currency, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.\n\nThe number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official company filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "SEC filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 55,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3000.08,
      "volume_total_usd": 51345.10420399999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 400000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-0973049D22",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china",
        "cxmt",
        "cxmt cap ipo",
        "ipo"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6KSSN15ZS1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KMKVM32L23",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x92b3ddb85d472858db10be264aac48ea081e7d597480166805929dd01e8e0d85",
      "question": "Will CXMT not IPO by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No IPO by December 31, 2026: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by official closing share price in its pricing currency, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.\n\nIt is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.\n\nIf necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.\n\nThe number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official company filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "SEC filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 55,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 20.07,
      "volume_total_usd": 1841.3305000000003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-120551C756",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china",
        "cxmt",
        "cxmt ipo occurrence",
        "ipo"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NQT4SM9CC5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T09:41:40Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-28T06:00:42.560Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1XR7YKDYG0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T09:38:40Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-28T06:00:42.560Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B33688SJY7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T09:37:42Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-28T06:00:42.560Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3SWN6CTL26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T09:37:42Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-28T06:00:42.560Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9XDTNKX8C8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T09:36:40Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-28T06:00:42.560Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V8WJM0HRD6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T09:35:40Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-28T06:00:42.560Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PX9VK25ZD0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T09:35:10Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-28T06:00:42.560Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6KSSN15ZS1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T03:40:42Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-28T06:00:42.560Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-KMKVM32L23",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}