{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-6HB0VGQQH0",
  "slug": "durable-goods-orders-mom-may-2026",
  "question": "Will durable goods orders increase month-over-month in May 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "durable-goods-orders",
    "economic-data",
    "us-manufacturing",
    "month-over-month",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the U.S. Census Bureau's seasonally adjusted month-over-month change in durable goods orders for May 2026. Eight Polymarket binary contracts span contiguous outcome ranges from below -4% to 8% or above, forming a discrete probability distribution across the full return space. All eight contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers, published by the U.S. Census Bureau. Resolution is set for June 25, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XGKM36C0S2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MVG8BFGFM6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6HB0VGQQH0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa241200ee0fb7cc4b1c30461b61797eab5936132cea3b9e770f43d61368b07ff",
      "question": "Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May?",
      "description": "This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<-4%: U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers determines the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, published by June 25, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-25T06:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-25T06:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "census.gov",
            "url": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "census.gov",
            "url": "https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "U.S. Census Bureau",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Census Bureau",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 30.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 3252.6027340000014,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -4,
      "question_id": "CMX-7C3F79EECF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "durable goods orders",
        "durable-goods",
        "economic-data",
        "us"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MW7QR3FM14",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6HB0VGQQH0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xada45e88850ef9eeb67e2670dbad96799387a4b453c726fbcfb96ad7e03b2acd",
      "question": "Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -2% and 0% in May?",
      "description": "This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "-2%– 0%: U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers determines the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, published by June 25, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-25T06:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-25T06:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "census.gov",
            "url": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "census.gov",
            "url": "https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "U.S. Census Bureau",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Census Bureau",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 25,
      "volume_total_usd": 1644.1048999999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8EF26D87F7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "durable goods orders",
        "durable-goods",
        "economic-data",
        "us"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XGKM36C0S2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6HB0VGQQH0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x82aecb024e8a49d9921d4b66fbaf735b861106bec5acce2154afe46d618e54da",
      "question": "Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May?",
      "description": "This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "2%–4%: U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers determines the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, published by June 25, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-25T06:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-25T06:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "census.gov",
            "url": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "census.gov",
            "url": "https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "U.S. Census Bureau",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Census Bureau",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 102.36,
      "volume_total_usd": 14160.181012000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E65E66E2E9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "durable goods orders",
        "durable-goods",
        "economic-data",
        "us"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2TZKH7LCG9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6HB0VGQQH0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9ae1f2784b2d5c51972da9dc5628efd44c966914970d46d5a9c0d737a9f50b4d",
      "question": "Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 6% and 8% in May?",
      "description": "This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "6%-8%: U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers determines the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, published by June 25, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-25T06:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-25T06:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "census.gov",
            "url": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "census.gov",
            "url": "https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "U.S. Census Bureau",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Census Bureau",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3046.177877,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-DEB4146E52",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "durable goods orders",
        "durable-goods",
        "economic-data",
        "us"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CYC6S88SZ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6HB0VGQQH0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x53e89613eabcba90082dae04a0b9fcfc5bff55bb890e567c66ca7597e98ea401",
      "question": "Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May?",
      "description": "This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "-4%– -2%: U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers determines the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, published by June 25, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-25T06:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-25T06:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "census.gov",
            "url": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "census.gov",
            "url": "https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "U.S. Census Bureau",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Census Bureau",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 324.12,
      "volume_total_usd": 4595.172936000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-82E6DD4E1B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "durable goods orders",
        "durable-goods",
        "economic-data",
        "us"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-35V78ZZGX1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6HB0VGQQH0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x15eb5df658f4ae22f8c6d809e7493560f705832f13f328c38aeb2febaa4704fd",
      "question": "Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 0% and 2% in May?",
      "description": "This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "0%–2%: U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers determines the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, published by June 25, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-25T06:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-25T06:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "census.gov",
            "url": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "census.gov",
            "url": "https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "U.S. Census Bureau",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Census Bureau",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 99.64,
      "volume_total_usd": 7510.981805999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7C883E82EA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "durable goods orders",
        "durable-goods",
        "economic-data",
        "us"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B8SK7P9NQ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6HB0VGQQH0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8aaec466ea58d6f8034ab31b8c5e8e410fe9d2b3ed23afd0b643dcb89fc644da",
      "question": "Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May?",
      "description": "This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "4%–6%: U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers determines the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, published by June 25, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-25T06:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-25T06:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "census.gov",
            "url": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "census.gov",
            "url": "https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "U.S. Census Bureau",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Census Bureau",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 38.3,
      "volume_total_usd": 8225.969111000004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2E1BD0C10E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "durable goods orders",
        "durable-goods",
        "economic-data",
        "us"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GSK4B83LZ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6HB0VGQQH0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9e7b8c9165d36029020955681b29819244f9117c617df26342344a977ea2c2f1",
      "question": "Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be at least 8% in May?",
      "description": "This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "8%+: U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers determines the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, published by June 25, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-25T06:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-25T06:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "census.gov",
            "url": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "census.gov",
            "url": "https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "U.S. Census Bureau",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Census Bureau",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2243.5068690000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 8,
      "question_id": "CMX-6F153E84D9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "durable goods orders",
        "durable-goods",
        "economic-data",
        "us"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MVG8BFGFM6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-25T15:31:32Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B8SK7P9NQ8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-25T15:03:37Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XGKM36C0S2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-25T15:03:34Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2TZKH7LCG9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-25T15:03:31Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MW7QR3FM14",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-25T15:02:07Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CYC6S88SZ1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-25T15:02:07Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-35V78ZZGX1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-25T15:02:07Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GSK4B83LZ8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-25T15:01:32Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-6HB0VGQQH0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}