{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9G2C6ZP902",
  "slug": "ecb-interest-rates-june-2026",
  "question": "Will the ECB lower its primary interest rate by June 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "economic-policy",
    "ecb",
    "interest-rates",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the ECB's deposit facility rate decision at the June 2026 monetary policy meeting. Five mutually exclusive Polymarket contracts cover the full outcome distribution: 50-plus bps cut, 25 bps cut, no change, 25 bps hike, and 50-plus bps hike. All five resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the ECB's official announcement. Probabilities across the five contracts must sum to one, making relative pricing a direct read on consensus policy expectations.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-K346K1QZ77",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9G2C6ZP902",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x750a2af2236366b55e59691c82e91b1bea9aa04d2c668afa308d88854fec81f1",
      "question": "Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this marke",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The European Central Bank's announcement of changes to the deposit facility rate at its June 2026 monetary policy decision.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:\nhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html\n\nThe level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:\nhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.\n\nIf no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4029.004,
      "volume_total_usd": 115465.31200300001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -25,
      "question_id": "CMX-9DD9D9D3D3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ecb",
        "european central bank interest rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9G2C6ZP902",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xc7781eb0e4ab55dcecb64bba3cdb58a03d1275cfdc87ff4bbc4c20005b283681",
      "question": "Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this marke",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:\nhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html\n\nThe level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:\nhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.\n\nIf no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10830.281032,
      "volume_total_usd": 142102.470062,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
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      "question_id": "CMX-2197094F95",
      "also_on": null,
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      "question": "Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this marke",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:\nhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html\n\nThe level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:\nhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.\n\nIf no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 101831.07290900002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -50,
      "question_id": "CMX-2EDA872E92",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ecb",
        "european central bank interest rate",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9G2C6ZP902",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xf154d470878d214ef528445c15ba77263f59123939362d495d83bbb0ec7a9c43",
      "question": "Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this marke",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:\nhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html\n\nThe level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:\nhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.\n\nIf no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.",
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11013.483317,
      "volume_total_usd": 125447.23097399995,
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      "question_id": "CMX-98A51C580F",
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      "question": "Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this marke",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:\nhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html\n\nThe level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:\nhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.\n\nIf no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": 126514.66351199993,
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      "direction": "above",
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      "question_id": "CMX-1760BCCFA3",
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VJT4447534",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
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      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-9G2C6ZP902",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}