{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JD9TMQJCF3",
  "slug": "ecb-interest-rates-september-2026-20260616222636097",
  "question": "Will the ECB main refinancing operations rate be below 2.5% in September 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "central-banking",
    "ecb",
    "interest-rates",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These five Polymarket markets collectively track the ECB's deposit facility rate decision at the September 9-10, 2026 Governing Council meeting. The markets span a full directional range: 50+ bps cut, 25 bps cut, hold, 25 bps hike, and 50+ bps hike, forming a mutually exclusive probability distribution across all plausible outcomes. Each resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the ECB's official post-meeting policy statement. No Kalshi equivalent is present, so cross-platform rate-level pricing is unavailable for this event.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-VCKC19M622",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.81,
    "implied_probability": 0.81
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TCWRHWX4Q2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JD9TMQJCF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc6f10b9bb3a0ee3b02e5bbcda09d7f4872e3183f6e7c0bc945c81624aaf8b626",
      "question": "Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50+ bps decrease: European Central Bank's official statement from its September 9-10, 2026 meeting determines the deposit facility rate change in basis points relative to the prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-10T11:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-10T11:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ecb.europa.eu",
            "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the European Central Bank",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official European Central Bank calendar",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "European Central Bank",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1425.6399999999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 13449.291750999999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -50,
      "question_id": "CMX-B1B48E9B17",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ecb",
        "european central bank interest rate",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-97CKMQDWK1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JD9TMQJCF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x240d68ffae598d596d150719631e9e2c18ef8f2c222366c902c5cda7bcfaa262",
      "question": "Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "25 bps decrease: European Central Bank's official statement from its September 9-10, 2026 meeting determines the deposit facility rate change in basis points relative to the prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-10T11:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-10T11:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ecb.europa.eu",
            "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the European Central Bank",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official European Central Bank calendar",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "European Central Bank",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.018,
      "implied_probability": 0.018,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1292.6399999999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 21453.802076000007,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -25,
      "question_id": "CMX-DAC3426080",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ecb",
        "european central bank interest rate",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L7XG1VJFP4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JD9TMQJCF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe5c79f9cc0092a3c064fa990454baa851638d32a988e278a548ad284e55a31ac",
      "question": "Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No change: European Central Bank's official statement from its September 9-10, 2026 meeting determines the deposit facility rate change in basis points relative to the prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-10T11:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-10T11:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "ecb.europa.eu",
            "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the European Central Bank",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official European Central Bank calendar",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "European Central Bank",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5444.505254999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 37089.50651800001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-3D069557CE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ecb",
        "european central bank interest rate",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VCKC19M622",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JD9TMQJCF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1e43a5c82c8c210ea1b229b8140aa85f82595bb67eab4f61e2379ea1fc00ca8a",
      "question": "Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "25 bps increase: European Central Bank's official statement from its September 9-10, 2026 meeting determines the deposit facility rate change in basis points relative to the prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-10T11:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-10T11:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the European Central Bank",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official European Central Bank calendar",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "European Central Bank",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.81,
      "implied_probability": 0.81,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2182.768573,
      "volume_total_usd": 42189.03876100003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": "CMX-A1E1A616D0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ecb",
        "european central bank interest rate",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FB4884KZ71",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JD9TMQJCF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x268e6091245fda2b8f8974729a0db131777bb1e0596e3eb2133d681345228ee7",
      "question": "Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50+ bps increase: European Central Bank's official statement from its September 9-10, 2026 meeting determines the deposit facility rate change in basis points relative to the prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-10T11:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-10T11:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the European Central Bank",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official European Central Bank calendar",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "European Central Bank",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1370.12643,
      "volume_total_usd": 23533.50528700001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": "CMX-C114695ECB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ecb",
        "european central bank interest rate",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-JD9TMQJCF3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}