{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-T66K00LRT0",
  "slug": "ecb-rate-hike-in-2026",
  "question": "Will the ECB raise interest rates by 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economic-policy",
    "central-banking",
    "euro-area",
    "monetary-policy",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the European Central Bank raises its deposit facility rate at any point during 2026. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing the ECB's official interest rates webpage as the authoritative source. The December 31, 2026 expiry captures the full policy calendar year. No cross-platform structural contrast is available; only one market is listed.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-HP4L01N874",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HP4L01N874",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T66K00LRT0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x26e6aa82c5fa62e9a146521aa5bfd7b5f4c5b47b92e66507defe992bd09a173f",
      "question": "ECB rate hike in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The European Central Bank's deposit facility rate as published on its official interest rates webpage through December 17, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
          "uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 481.63178800000003,
      "volume_total_usd": 125315.64620800017,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F027451035",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ecb",
        "european central bank",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HP4L01N874",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-T66K00LRT0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}