{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NVR4MFSHW1",
  "slug": "elon-bull-run-parlay",
  "question": "Will Elon Musk's net worth reach $300 billion by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "tech",
    "elon-musk",
    "parlay",
    "2026",
    "prediction-market"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks a parlay condition requiring all three Elon Musk-linked criteria to be met by December 31, 2026. The single Polymarket contract prices the joint probability of simultaneous threshold breaches. Resolution occurs via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against defined condition language. Parlay structure means any single condition failure resolves the market NO regardless of progress on the others.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GF372RT951",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.102,
    "implied_probability": 0.102,
    "as_of": "2026-08-30T14:00:47.041Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GF372RT951",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NVR4MFSHW1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x115ee9b6bdc5dc9a50338698c8633d8e05bb626968fc1d0def9e71287e3e2650",
      "question": "Elon Bull Run Parlay",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:\n\n- Elon Musk trillionaire\n- Another Elon baby\n- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.\n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here: \nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves whether all three conditions (Elon Musk net worth exceeds $1 trillion, another Musk child born, 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space) occur between January 1 and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:\n\n- Elon Musk trillionaire\n- Another Elon baby\n- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.\n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here: \nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 20,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.102,
      "implied_probability": 0.102,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-30T14:00:47.041Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 12396.691317000004,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7F3DB3C874",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bull run",
        "elon",
        "elon bull run",
        "parlay"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-NVR4MFSHW1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}