{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3VSN3YF491",
  "slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-august-3-august-5",
  "question": "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elon-musk",
    "twitter-activity",
    "pop-culture",
    "social-media",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Elon Musk's public post count on X from August 3 to August 5, 2026. Polymarket structures the event as ten mutually exclusive count-range brackets, from under 40 posts to 240 or more. Together the brackets form a full probability distribution over his 48-hour activity. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, using X's public post count excluding replies.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JG6NV9R2G0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.318,
    "implied_probability": 0.318
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JG6NV9R2G0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3VSN3YF491",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa1b536c510fe7ebcc53fe3262e1197c67bf02c4621b107619f43dc9d81d221af",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<40: X's public post count for the named account from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5 2026 12:00 PM ET, excluding replies, as captured by the tracker and confirmed by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "X itself",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.318,
      "implied_probability": 0.318,
      "volume_24h_usd": 50624.19619799999,
      "volume_total_usd": 70013.76003500001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "elon musk",
        "elon musk tweets",
        "social media",
        "twitter"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QLYSZJS7N0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3VSN3YF491",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd04cfc3253ef13c1ebda1971b9476a29257d60ff5384617579770240b36875f7",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "40-64: X's public post count for the named account from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5 2026 12:00 PM ET, excluding replies, as captured by the tracker and confirmed by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "X itself",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.59,
      "implied_probability": 0.59,
      "volume_24h_usd": 24842.54110599999,
      "volume_total_usd": 42987.31917500002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "elon musk",
        "elon musk tweets",
        "social media",
        "twitter"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NF3YF0NQZ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3VSN3YF491",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x331e84f080cef0976b352852775f948219eb8243ee4f3b3e59af411cc40d7800",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "65-89: X's public post count for the named account from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5 2026 12:00 PM ET, excluding replies, as captured by the tracker and confirmed by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "X itself",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 37263.090666,
      "volume_total_usd": 52500.25080500003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 65,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "elon musk",
        "elon musk tweets",
        "social media",
        "twitter"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-02W1X5J1G4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3VSN3YF491",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb637f2879771c9628074fbd263277f5abd05a1659667a8e33c088b72c6979158",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "90-114: X's public post count for the named account from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5 2026 12:00 PM ET, excluding replies, as captured by the tracker and confirmed by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "X itself",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.009,
      "implied_probability": 0.009,
      "volume_24h_usd": 23399.775470999994,
      "volume_total_usd": 35304.212835,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 90,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "elon musk",
        "elon musk tweets",
        "social media",
        "twitter"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KWHMZPNH15",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3VSN3YF491",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7d753624532f8c8affc66c2cbe12d2fe370b40336d64d75d7cd9e45197a9fbe1",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "115-139: X's public post count for the named account from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5 2026 12:00 PM ET, excluding replies, as captured by the tracker and confirmed by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "X itself",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 58,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 24211.048042000006,
      "volume_total_usd": 39625.352852,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 115,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "elon musk",
        "elon musk tweets",
        "social media",
        "twitter"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T2JRWN0HS2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3VSN3YF491",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x439082aeaae5254b94a69888d09c5f6d3e06a12d3dfa77d4685de87d9fe859ab",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "140-164: X's public post count for the named account from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5 2026 12:00 PM ET, excluding replies, as captured by the tracker and confirmed by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "x.com",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
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      "question": "Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-08-05T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T16:00:00Z",
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      "question": "Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?",
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