{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-D15HMT8LR6",
  "slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-august-6-august-8",
  "question": "Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elon-musk",
    "twitter-activity",
    "pop-culture",
    "2026",
    "social-media"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks Elon Musk's total X post count over a 52-hour window starting August 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Ten mutually exclusive Polymarket brackets span from under 40 posts to 240-plus, forming a discrete probability distribution over post volume. All ten markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using public X account data as the authoritative source. The count includes main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts, making repost activity a meaningful variable at higher brackets.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KRK9M6CV42",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.007,
    "implied_probability": 0.007
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TFLKHS0RH0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D15HMT8LR6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x832e42e245df9d45defe3cc4fb33f4909bea1f3fb537192fdc2dd55801d23a13",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<40: The number of main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts by the named account on X from August 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET, as captured by the tracker, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "X itself",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.2,
      "implied_probability": 0.2,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2050.4685000000004,
      "volume_total_usd": 2050.4685,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "elon musk",
        "elon musk tweets",
        "social media",
        "twitter"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YJH5XQTLM7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D15HMT8LR6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb45a0f765b7162236610e306c9d90858cddb8a502fd47883d5d51d9bdae28abb",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "40-64: The number of main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts by the named account on X from August 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET, as captured by the tracker, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "X itself",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.42,
      "implied_probability": 0.42,
      "volume_24h_usd": 793.3784360000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 801.2270060000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "elon musk",
        "elon musk tweets",
        "social media",
        "twitter"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YNJ6HPKW67",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D15HMT8LR6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x90887fc51bde2638a135ba025f04930c75cdcf51ff4f5dac9c5fa710eff605d2",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "65-89: The number of main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts by the named account on X from August 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET, as captured by the tracker, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "X itself",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.3,
      "implied_probability": 0.3,
      "volume_24h_usd": 333.205518,
      "volume_total_usd": 351.7240350000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 65,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "elon musk",
        "elon musk tweets",
        "social media",
        "twitter"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D72147Z9S6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D15HMT8LR6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2fc42c09e5d6b120a940567be9110f49a41afc5d97f622076b053b705c8d6624",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "90-114: The number of main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts by the named account on X from August 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET, as captured by the tracker, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "X itself",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 681.038924,
      "volume_total_usd": 681.038924,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 90,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "elon musk",
        "elon musk tweets",
        "social media",
        "twitter"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8BKRQGG558",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D15HMT8LR6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8ed8f7033b5f1ec9614f64a65925ce5ae6c27bc853ff3dd34dd1c7ff0578758f",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "115-139: The number of main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts by the named account on X from August 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET, as captured by the tracker, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "X itself",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.024,
      "implied_probability": 0.024,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2227.1184449999996,
      "volume_total_usd": 2257.118445,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 115,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "elon musk",
        "elon musk tweets",
        "social media",
        "twitter"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KRK9M6CV42",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D15HMT8LR6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x40ebf16865ade7f3551ef5895a23bc2c11c61b1b42f37f818514932c3b5c8da2",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "140-164: The number of main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts by the named account on X from August 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET, as captured by the tracker, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D15HMT8LR6",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xa276418d3da983e444f722ed4d889c762fd21f3c7cd738a396b12f4aa64d66f0",
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      "close_at": "2026-08-08T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T16:00:00Z",
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      "question": "Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?",
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        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_citation": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
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            "name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
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            "name": "X itself",
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        "caps": [],
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      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
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