{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-6G0DM77690",
  "slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-june-1-june-3",
  "question": "Will Elon Musk tweet at least # times between June 1-3, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elon-musk",
    "twitter-activity",
    "pop-culture",
    "short-window",
    "social-media"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Elon Musk's post count on X across a 48-hour window, June 1 to June 3, 2026. Ten mutually exclusive Polymarket brackets cover the full range from under 40 to 240 or more posts. All ten resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, using Xtracker's count of @elonmusk activity, excluding reposts. Bracket boundary placement is the key structural variable; the implied probability distribution across tiers signals where the market expects activity to concentrate.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-3475X6MSX4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S038SF2QQ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6G0DM77690",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8116bf0ccc78f6b8f346e73733f07ab5c27608ca319f6992bbabf376280d7931",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the tot",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Xtracker's count of Elon Musk's posts on X (@elonmusk) from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3 2026 12:00 PM ET, excluding replies.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-03T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-03T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 67100.57598700002,
      "volume_total_usd": 94893.30576699998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "activity",
        "elon musk",
        "elon musk tweets",
        "social media",
        "twitter"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M3FLYNQT32",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6G0DM77690",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf53f1512e0b1cc672327a0c2a47d6f2f7fccc2547cf36ee583c120b6cade284c",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the tot",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Xtracker's count of Elon Musk's posts on X (@elonmusk) from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3 2026 12:00 PM ET, excluding replies.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-03T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-03T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 86826.594198,
      "volume_total_usd": 100037.17339899986,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "activity",
        "elon musk",
        "elon musk tweets",
        "social media",
        "twitter"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0KMVZZKS14",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6G0DM77690",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x36ae7cb439f44ccd452aadee56de2e0c3ed08abcc58a4d3f36b11707bb043514",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the tot",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Xtracker's count of Elon Musk's posts on X (@elonmusk) from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3 2026 12:00 PM ET, excluding replies.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-03T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-03T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 53705.345147999964,
      "volume_total_usd": 69841.46205499998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 65,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "activity",
        "elon musk",
        "elon musk tweets",
        "social media",
        "twitter"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G83Y4YHZR5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6G0DM77690",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd88c53169dcd4f737b826c4b698131c1e4ebc80fe69447eafe221e57cbde221f",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the tot",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Xtracker's count of Elon Musk's posts on X (@elonmusk) from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3 2026 12:00 PM ET, excluding replies.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-03T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-03T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 81598.72611299998,
      "volume_total_usd": 97773.11088899997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 90,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "activity",
        "elon musk",
        "elon musk tweets",
        "social media",
        "twitter"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3475X6MSX4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6G0DM77690",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0008d9683eda832e1006a187a104034214f84bc071ce6edeec34aec0b6e6ea25",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the tot",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Xtracker's count of Elon Musk's posts on X (@elonmusk) from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3 2026 12:00 PM ET, excluding replies.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-03T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-03T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 115181.08571299998,
      "volume_total_usd": 135068.06165499985,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 115,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "activity",
        "elon musk",
        "elon musk tweets",
        "social media",
        "twitter"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YZ8VG9RR35",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6G0DM77690",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x93df425877f50dc3a1205027117803d5b70b7700162497a5376195cd86002a32",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the tot",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Xtracker's count of Elon Musk's posts on X (@elonmusk) from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3 2026 12:00 PM ET, excluding replies.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-03T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-03T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 31718.62145,
      "volume_total_usd": 50380.68514099997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 140,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "activity",
        "elon musk",
        "elon musk tweets",
        "social media",
        "twitter"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R2VTN3JD74",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6G0DM77690",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x87af5d15de8b79a700c2931c86437ce2141cfdcf6455696893b6d03cdbc732aa",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the tot",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Xtracker's count of Elon Musk's posts on X (@elonmusk) from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3 2026 12:00 PM ET, excluding replies.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-03T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-03T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.\n\nReplies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.\n\nDeleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).\n\nCommunity reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking \"Export Data\". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11494.768,
      "volume_total_usd": 27683.437248000006,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 165,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "activity",
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