{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9G5MQ28BZ9",
  "slug": "elon-musk-wins-10b-settlement-against-altmanopenai",
  "question": "Will Elon Musk win a $10 billion or greater settlement against Sam Altman and/or OpenAI by 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "tech",
    "openai",
    "ai",
    "legal-settlement",
    "elon-musk"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether Elon Musk secures a settlement or judgment of $10 billion or more against Sam Altman and OpenAI. The sole market is on Polymarket, pricing a binary yes/no outcome on that threshold. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing U.S. District Court, Northern District of California Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR. The market closes December 31, 2026, leaving outcome uncertainty tied entirely to case progression through that date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GLVJY3ZXX2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GLVJY3ZXX2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9G5MQ28BZ9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x19b45e016995823419255364ed7c49423d411e7dbc712c6abf4e0e0222740109",
      "question": "Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nQualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-mo",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "U.S. District Court, Northern District of California Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR determines the settlement or judgment amount awarded to Elon Musk by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nQualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.\n\nIf a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to \"No\". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.\n\nIf Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from the U.S. court system",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "A consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 76,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8.46,
      "volume_total_usd": 145823.73333200003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": 10000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-6B4B3A6B80",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "altman",
        "elon musk",
        "elon musk settlement",
        "litigation",
        "openai",
        "settlement"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GLVJY3ZXX2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-07T06:00:59.667Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-9G5MQ28BZ9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}