{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-29KZ4FSQ56",
  "slug": "epstein-client-list-released-in-2025-372",
  "question": "Will the Epstein client list be released by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump",
    "legal-disclosure",
    "sealed-documents",
    "2025"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether a Jeffery Epstein client list is officially released within defined calendar deadlines. All three markets are Polymarket binary outcomes, structured as sequential deadline strikes: June 30, December 31 2025, and December 31 2026. The December 31 2025 market resolved at the January 1 2026 timestamp per Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Later deadlines remain open, pricing cumulative release probability across extended horizons.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-D9R5W160M2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D9R5W160M2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-29KZ4FSQ56",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0576b194302d7d0a3f7bfc1b843cef4a5c9d582a3f424f879c15441feed78f01",
      "question": "Epstein client list released in 2025?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if files which were not previously public and which pertain to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein are made public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, and those files contain a list of individuals associated with Epstein in connection with his illegal activities, including but not limited to sex trafficking or related crimes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nTo qualify, the files must contain names in a context equivalent to what is commonly referred to as Epstein’s “client list”—that is, a document that explicitly identifies a list or set of",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T07:44:49Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if files which were not previously public and which pertain to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein are made public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, and those files contain a list of individuals associated with Epstein in connection with his illegal activities, including but not limited to sex trafficking or related crimes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nTo qualify, the files must contain names in a context equivalent to what is commonly referred to as Epstein’s “client list”—that is, a document that explicitly identifies a list or set of individuals as being directly connected to, participating in, facilitating, funding, soliciting, or otherwise being implicated in Jeffrey Epstein’s illegal activities.\n\nA document may qualify even if it does not contain explicit incriminating language on its face, so long as credible reporting or accompanying official context confirms that the released document is an incriminating client list or functionally equivalent roster of individuals tied to Epstein’s illegal activity.\n\nThe following will not qualify:\n\n- Flight logs, passenger manifests, visitor logs, or transportation records which merely show individuals traveling with, meeting with, or visiting Epstein without any explicit or contextual tie to criminal activity.\n\n- Contact books, address lists, social calendars, guest lists, schedules, correspondence logs, or similar documents that include names solely due to social contact, proximity, acquaintance, or logistical interaction with Epstein.\n\n- Any document listing individuals without accompanying language, context, or credible reporting that connects those individuals to Epstein’s illegal activity.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be the released files themselves and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the released files themselves",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 43,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3490020.651521,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "disclosure",
        "epstein",
        "epstein client list",
        "legal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GL4G2140B7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-29KZ4FSQ56",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa08bf5e2acca8cf3f85209795cf278128a30869c5a8bfb97851e19fd21d0d21e",
      "question": "Epstein client list released by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if files which were not previously public and which pertain to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein are made public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and those files contain a list of individuals associated with Epstein in connection with his illegal activities, including but not limited to sex trafficking or related crimes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nTo qualify, the files must contain names in a context equivalent to what is commonly referred to as Epstein’s “client list”—that is, a document that explicitly identifies a list or set of ind",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if files which were not previously public and which pertain to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein are made public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and those files contain a list of individuals associated with Epstein in connection with his illegal activities, including but not limited to sex trafficking or related crimes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nTo qualify, the files must contain names in a context equivalent to what is commonly referred to as Epstein’s “client list”—that is, a document that explicitly identifies a list or set of individuals as being directly connected to, participating in, facilitating, funding, soliciting, or otherwise being implicated in Jeffrey Epstein’s illegal activities.\n\nA document may qualify even if it does not contain explicit incriminating language on its face, so long as credible reporting or accompanying official context confirms that the released document is an incriminating client list or functionally equivalent roster of individuals tied to Epstein’s illegal activity.\n\nThe following will not qualify:\n\n- Flight logs, passenger manifests, visitor logs, or transportation records which merely show individuals traveling with, meeting with, or visiting Epstein without any explicit or contextual tie to criminal activity.\n\n- Contact books, address lists, social calendars, guest lists, schedules, correspondence logs, or similar documents that include names solely due to social contact, proximity, acquaintance, or logistical interaction with Epstein.\n\n- Any document listing individuals without accompanying language, context, or credible reporting that connects those individuals to Epstein’s illegal activity.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be the released files themselves and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the released files themselves",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 43,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 109.761309,
      "volume_total_usd": 827449.7101900016,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "disclosure",
        "epstein",
        "epstein client list",
        "legal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5XXD0HQDK9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-29KZ4FSQ56",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xffe704e544d8ac0c365ec0c41fe7b20529a545a398654899ce00c702d1291b4c",
      "question": "Epstein client list released by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if files which were not previously public and which pertain to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein are made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and those files contain a list of individuals associated with Epstein in connection with his illegal activities, including but not limited to sex trafficking or related crimes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nTo qualify, the files must contain names in a context equivalent to what is commonly referred to as Epstein’s “client list”—that is, a document that explicitly identifies a list or set of",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if files which were not previously public and which pertain to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein are made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and those files contain a list of individuals associated with Epstein in connection with his illegal activities, including but not limited to sex trafficking or related crimes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nTo qualify, the files must contain names in a context equivalent to what is commonly referred to as Epstein’s “client list”—that is, a document that explicitly identifies a list or set of individuals as being directly connected to, participating in, facilitating, funding, soliciting, or otherwise being implicated in Jeffrey Epstein’s illegal activities.\n\nA document may qualify even if it does not contain explicit incriminating language on its face, so long as credible reporting or accompanying official context confirms that the released document is an incriminating client list or functionally equivalent roster of individuals tied to Epstein’s illegal activity.\n\nThe following will not qualify:\n\n- Flight logs, passenger manifests, visitor logs, or transportation records which merely show individuals traveling with, meeting with, or visiting Epstein without any explicit or contextual tie to criminal activity.\n\n- Contact books, address lists, social calendars, guest lists, schedules, correspondence logs, or similar documents that include names solely due to social contact, proximity, acquaintance, or logistical interaction with Epstein.\n\n- Any document listing individuals without accompanying language, context, or credible reporting that connects those individuals to Epstein’s illegal activity.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be the released files themselves and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the released files themselves",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 43,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "disclosure",
        "epstein",
        "epstein client list",
        "legal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5XXD0HQDK9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GL4G2140B7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D9R5W160M2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T07:44:49Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-29KZ4FSQ56",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}