{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FHL83M8ZC5",
  "slug": "eth-flipped-in-2026",
  "question": "Will Ethereum's market capitalization exceed Bitcoin's market capitalization by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "ethereum",
    "crypto",
    "market-cap-flip",
    "bitcoin-comparison",
    "altseason",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Ethereum loses its position as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization in 2026. CoinGecko's cryptocurrency market capitalization rankings serve as the authoritative data source, observed daily throughout 2026. Resolution is handled by Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The market closes and resolves on January 1, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-0NBXWVC6K5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0NBXWVC6K5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FHL83M8ZC5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcbca4926398df4622033099a661c591c5d5b62f3ac11e1dc871c2a7592c74e32",
      "question": "Ethereum flipped in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ethereum (ETH) is not the second or first largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization at any point between January 1, and December 31, 2026 ET, according to CoinGecko. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be CoinGecko. If CoinGecko becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source will be chosen. If there is ambiguity, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "CoinGecko's cryptocurrency market capitalization rankings, observed daily throughout 2026, determine whether Ethereum falls outside the top two positions at any point.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ethereum (ETH) is not the second or first largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization at any point between January 1, and December 31, 2026 ET, according to CoinGecko. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be CoinGecko. If CoinGecko becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source will be chosen. If there is ambiguity, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "Coingecko (consensus fallback)",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 57,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 735.0831900000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 498859.5151660016,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-4DD8F24CB7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "btc",
        "eth",
        "ethereum",
        "flip",
        "market_cap"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0NBXWVC6K5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-FHL83M8ZC5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}