{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZJW8DTLC4",
  "slug": "ethereal-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-774",
  "question": "Ethereal fully diluted valuation one day after launch, January 1, 2028",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      25000000,
      50000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 25000000,
        "prob": 79
      },
      {
        "threshold": 50000000,
        "prob": 31
      },
      {
        "threshold": 100000000,
        "prob": 28
      },
      {
        "threshold": 200000000,
        "prob": 16
      },
      {
        "threshold": 300000000,
        "prob": 11
      },
      {
        "threshold": 400000000,
        "prob": 11
      },
      {
        "threshold": 500000000,
        "prob": 6
      },
      {
        "threshold": 600000000,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 800000000,
        "prob": 7
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1000000000,
        "prob": 6
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2000000000,
        "prob": 4
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "fdv-valuation",
    "ethereal",
    "2028"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Ethereal's governance token fully diluted valuation one day after its launch. Eleven binary strikes span $25M to $2B, forming an implied probability distribution over launch-day FDV. Each strike is priced independently on Polymarket; together they function as a discrete CDF across the FDV range. Resolution uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, applying total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-N8234P6ZN4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.39,
    "implied_probability": 0.39
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BHQZ8WKQJ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZJW8DTLC4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8b58c608388dc95bd30e98f1883bcb48ea682979a42a1cf59be770e6a4badf98",
      "question": "Ethereal FDV above $100M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn'",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$100M: The listed company's governance token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.22,
      "implied_probability": 0.22,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4805.198112000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 100000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-F687729072",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereal",
        "ethereal fdv",
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VK3K4DN302",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZJW8DTLC4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6b9fee4f3c516fb87aea6fccac7f44f2cc7015635d62caf38d9972d2a8427224",
      "question": "Ethereal FDV above $300M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn'",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$300M: The listed company's governance token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 778.40968,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 300000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-F3646E28EF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereal",
        "ethereal fdv",
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6VD3TX1Y99",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZJW8DTLC4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcfc588c0a301b9763e9b952bf42446ce23281b15cd40c90bdb9d8abe30b57853",
      "question": "Ethereal FDV above $400M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn'",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$400M: The listed company's governance token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1201.909504,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 400000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-801F4543E2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereal",
        "ethereal fdv",
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T9PJVTRS87",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZJW8DTLC4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa164172b7cee74420cfce554c3a265b2553cb80e48b36e286e67f302b6574712",
      "question": "Ethereal FDV above $500M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn'",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$500M: The listed company's governance token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 16,
      "volume_total_usd": 6119.4138219999995,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-0322568FD9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereal",
        "ethereal fdv",
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R8G9VZKLP6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZJW8DTLC4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb83b39ae2c55de30b3a3304341aaae989a5ee19d361c9e3c611e28a632cd4d1c",
      "question": "Ethereal FDV above $800M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn'",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$800M: The listed company's governance token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "volume_24h_usd": 18.29,
      "volume_total_usd": 1041.390286,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 800000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-0BDF3C5C34",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereal",
        "ethereal fdv",
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K1YR57QXC3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZJW8DTLC4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdb949c29645f4964b6ff22c0f37a6e3c400bb7ec1124bb44b3be8f28d25608d8",
      "question": "Ethereal FDV above $2B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn'",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$2B: The listed company's governance token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3043.443055000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-24765248DC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereal",
        "ethereal fdv",
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N8234P6ZN4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZJW8DTLC4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb6e8fbeb2891516113c9761de03ee067c65efa61846ab517016800894b33c717",
      "question": "Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn'",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$50M: The listed company's governance token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.39,
      "implied_probability": 0.39,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 9487.561862999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-A6E853A4A7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereal",
        "ethereal fdv",
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7CH15GHJK1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZJW8DTLC4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8aa2e5fb26f19dde8e9911d9ec29b539775e6a71300a02c787915fc74b3ffdba",
      "question": "Ethereal FDV above $200M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn'",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$200M: The listed company's governance token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.19,
      "implied_probability": 0.19,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 609.3942680000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 200000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-3EAE66D582",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereal",
        "ethereal fdv",
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y9LFTXQF96",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZJW8DTLC4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x22781a6f2893cd8544f16ced1e0309ebdc4a910ada6b085fd8566482acb0ef81",
      "question": "Ethereal FDV above $600M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn'",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$600M: The listed company's governance token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 333.748716,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 600000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-C715F470B4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereal",
        "ethereal fdv",
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YJ8HRC0507",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZJW8DTLC4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x72863a4738cca108fcc921776061aaa3ef2eebe39eb71b3693d5816aecb03e0f",
      "question": "Ethereal FDV above $1B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn'",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1B: The listed company's governance token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 745.3362380000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-ECEE382761",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereal",
        "ethereal fdv",
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LJ9ZQXCGL6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZJW8DTLC4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8965e7a309aac63d11d4cf5c728e59d5a2853e46ebe9e7e4c6e6ce613da42de9",
      "question": "Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn'",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$25M: The listed company's governance token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.53,
      "implied_probability": 0.53,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 29251.47244099999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 25000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-D5B1AC3E99",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ethereal",
        "ethereal fdv",
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-WZJW8DTLC4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}