{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5KXFCXNHG1",
  "slug": "eu-dissolves-before-2027",
  "question": "Will the EU dissolve before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "politics",
    "european-union",
    "institutional-dissolution",
    "2026",
    "binary-outcome"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the European Union formally dissolves before end-2026. Resolution requires more than half of EU member states to formally withdraw, or all members to adopt a dissolution framework. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle determines the outcome against that defined threshold. At current pricing, this remains a near-zero probability event with no credible dissolution mechanism in progress.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5SSX4R05S7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.024,
    "implied_probability": 0.024
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5SSX4R05S7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5KXFCXNHG1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0a706801ddd761794258687cb07c6697e4a38dfc34aa96032e928740119f1905",
      "question": "EU dissolves before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:\n\n1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.\n\n2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.\n \n3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether more than half of EU member states formally withdraw, all EU member states adopt a treaty repealing EU foundational treaties, or the EU ceases to exist as a legal entity by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:\n\n1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.\n\n2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.\n \n3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.\n\nEU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the European Union and EU member states",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.024,
      "implied_probability": 0.024,
      "volume_24h_usd": 99.43,
      "volume_total_usd": 178302.6453219999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "eu",
        "european union",
        "geopolitics",
        "institutional"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-5KXFCXNHG1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}