{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JMWC6PCGV1",
  "slug": "european-military-action-on-iran-byptptpt-20260720022428140",
  "question": "Will there be European military action against Iran by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "military-action",
    "europe-iran",
    "2026",
    "international-conflict"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether any European country initiates military action against Iran within a defined window. The July 31 contract closes one month earlier than the August 31 contract, creating a sequential binary structure on the same underlying event. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The earlier expiry carries lower cumulative probability by construction.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YLTDJMN302",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.047,
    "implied_probability": 0.047
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YLTDJMN302",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JMWC6PCGV1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc92f028bf5667ffe2eab6020587346a4ba25bd49b2c2e330bff0ac18f5a46020",
      "question": "Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by any European country, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nFor th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by any European country, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\n“Iran” refers to the territory within the internationally recognized borders of Iran. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory, it will not qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the relevant European country and Iran and credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 27,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 5
      },
      "last_price": 0.047,
      "implied_probability": 0.047,
      "volume_24h_usd": 7947.750453000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 66765.825113,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "europe",
        "european military action",
        "geopolitics",
        "iran",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LZLKKYM6Y3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JMWC6PCGV1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x43c89ef923509c4239a87379ce3eb8762236a9176fbbb3c71f025b2191b1a354",
      "question": "Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by any European country, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nFor th",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by any European country, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\n“Iran” refers to the territory within the internationally recognized borders of Iran. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory, it will not qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the relevant European country and Iran and credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 27,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 5
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4220.22315,
      "volume_total_usd": 30625.58180199999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "europe",
        "european military action",
        "geopolitics",
        "iran",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-JMWC6PCGV1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}