{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-K0ZQ5BQG22",
  "slug": "extended-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch",
  "question": "Extended FDV one day after launch",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      150000000,
      300000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 150000000,
        "prob": 73
      },
      {
        "threshold": 300000000,
        "prob": 44
      },
      {
        "threshold": 500000000,
        "prob": 27
      },
      {
        "threshold": 800000000,
        "prob": 11
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1000000000,
        "prob": 6
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2000000000,
        "prob": 2
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3000000000,
        "prob": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "fdv-valuation",
    "token-launch",
    "market-performance",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the fully diluted valuation of Extended's token one day after its launch. Seven Polymarket binary strikes form a ladder from $150M to $3B, each asking whether FDV exceeds that threshold. The implied probability spread across strikes encodes the market's distribution over launch-day valuation. FDV is computed as total supply multiplied by spot price from the most liquid available source, resolved via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-0D8YJXKC23",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.45,
    "implied_probability": 0.45
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-70XTQRG4B3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K0ZQ5BQG22",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x004230fb1f54a139d50ba2041e062a01461c931a6725ce482e3a9ab61b2925bb",
      "question": "Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$800M: The listed company's token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid available source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/extendedapp",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/extendedapp",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 68.44,
      "volume_total_usd": 226908.85561100033,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 800000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-86E0EA0E29",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "extended",
        "extended fdv",
        "fdv",
        "launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1V5MZTG1R4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K0ZQ5BQG22",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc0f838d718bf25167ba687f574603cecac310eb7b33daa55b1ac0f9095ed5445",
      "question": "Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$2B: The listed company's token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid available source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/extendedapp",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/extendedapp",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.012,
      "implied_probability": 0.012,
      "volume_24h_usd": 15.18,
      "volume_total_usd": 108230.07716500001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-7E8C92C76D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "extended",
        "extended fdv",
        "fdv",
        "launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MV4QX6C589",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K0ZQ5BQG22",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7fd2f50352ef2c9e7b462a46b893792d7a6bf510bf0bc2e1f07f85b1ea1e8ca8",
      "question": "Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$500M: The listed company's token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid available source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/extendedapp",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/extendedapp",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.27,
      "implied_probability": 0.27,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1405.63,
      "volume_total_usd": 976614.6647979998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-E09EF8F7F5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "extended",
        "extended fdv",
        "fdv",
        "launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DHVH6Z7XB9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K0ZQ5BQG22",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd1d9c72da4ed36e09eb9019a0554451cb3a9e5681fc5d00ec94205f1d97a8ce5",
      "question": "Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1B: The listed company's token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid available source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/extendedapp",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/extendedapp",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 99240.85760600002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-3CCA285207",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "extended",
        "extended fdv",
        "fdv",
        "launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9DVRCQJJF8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K0ZQ5BQG22",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0e7b7cc2649466ce6dfed9cf49611630fe986b31fba84ec01107e0a50f1534bb",
      "question": "Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$3B: The listed company's token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid available source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/extendedapp",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/extendedapp",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 426.6208439999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 85868.7763289999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-6A2BAD1BC7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "extended",
        "extended fdv",
        "fdv",
        "launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0D8YJXKC23",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K0ZQ5BQG22",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcc59c2569d30b4b86993f3ff17bb900fffc56e7d98f1a5b02793fc9c133db99a",
      "question": "Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$300M: The listed company's token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid available source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/extendedapp",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/extendedapp",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.45,
      "implied_probability": 0.45,
      "volume_24h_usd": 40,
      "volume_total_usd": 1169581.2616470011,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 300000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-0D5A764814",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "extended",
        "extended fdv",
        "fdv",
        "launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YG6YKQ1M63",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K0ZQ5BQG22",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x45514e0fcd922a740e67ab064a9042d3e964006712f9540947808ae82067ed23",
      "question": "Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$150M: The listed company's token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid available source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/extendedapp",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/extendedapp",
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