{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CJQJ8SK6S4",
  "slug": "fed-decision-in-july-181",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in July?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fomc",
    "fed-rates",
    "monetary-policy",
    "2026",
    "interest-rates"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Federal Reserve's policy rate decision at the July 2026 FOMC meeting. Five binary contracts span all directional outcomes: hold, plus-or-minus 25 bps, and plus-or-minus 50 bps or more. All five resolve against the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' upper bound announcement, via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Traders should note the mutually exclusive structure; exactly one contract settles at 1.00.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-M2MXY5N4T1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.17,
    "implied_probability": 0.17
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VT6M60XTS9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CJQJ8SK6S4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8bf1c1536ecb1c08fe13c6b71e8ab1f58bf3461c4cb79f5f1679f869a06aef86",
      "question": "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No change: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement of the upper bound of the target federal funds range following the July 2026 FOMC meeting determines the basis point change, rounded to nearest 25 bps increment.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "federalreserve.gov",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "federalreserve.gov",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official website of the Federal Reserve",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.819,
      "implied_probability": 0.819,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1743979.8716289985,
      "volume_total_usd": 23217650.950740047,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-97A6610363",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "interest rates",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M2MXY5N4T1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CJQJ8SK6S4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb5c0abeecb5502e6e8d83155c27819174d8317af3c425c3afc5a8c45257a3793",
      "question": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "25 bps increase: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement of the upper bound of the target federal funds range following the July 2026 FOMC meeting determines the basis point change, rounded to nearest 25 bps increment.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
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            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "federalreserve.gov",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official website of the Federal Reserve",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1245417.31305,
      "volume_total_usd": 16997267.399532482,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": "CMX-549E600AAF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y2HWKKQ4F6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CJQJ8SK6S4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3d675f1c88099a57c12abca632cf926be1bf430125168321de06234e9930fe1a",
      "question": "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50+ bps decrease: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement of the upper bound of the target federal funds range following the July 2026 FOMC meeting determines the basis point change, rounded to nearest 25 bps increment.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "federalreserve.gov",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "federalreserve.gov",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official website of the Federal Reserve",
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 850977.2369999996,
      "volume_total_usd": 11566333.277148912,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -50,
      "question_id": "CMX-8D57598AEE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K5V2WGHHH6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CJQJ8SK6S4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2a28cc33492516116690a20d290f9922acbe0ed367ff52a6082154474c7f2971",
      "question": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50+ bps increase: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement of the upper bound of the target federal funds range following the July 2026 FOMC meeting determines the basis point change, rounded to nearest 25 bps increment.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official website of the Federal Reserve",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)",
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.006,
      "implied_probability": 0.006,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1094772.8439939998,
      "volume_total_usd": 15310700.430040848,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": "CMX-169AAE7871",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SFV34L63P8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CJQJ8SK6S4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4ede078cae84a5877ac32d7fb48811e5c23549a1904b7df06ff7935c6d79d831",
      "question": "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "25 bps decrease: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement of the upper bound of the target federal funds range following the July 2026 FOMC meeting determines the basis point change, rounded to nearest 25 bps increment.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "federalreserve.gov",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
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          },
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            "name": "federalreserve.gov",
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          {
            "name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.004,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 762198.9390719999,
      "volume_total_usd": 13800247.00897507,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -25,
      "question_id": "CMX-054BEA903F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "federal reserve funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-CJQJ8SK6S4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}