{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VZKJ3PV470",
  "slug": "fed-rate-hike-by",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate by the settlement date?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fed",
    "fed-rates",
    "fomc",
    "inflation",
    "monetary-policy"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the Federal Reserve Board of Governors raises the policy rate at successive FOMC meetings through October 2026. Each contract is binary, pricing the probability of a hike by a specific meeting date. The series structure allows traders to isolate incremental tightening probability across the April, June, July, September, and October windows. All five markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official rate announcement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-04RZ17H6N6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.01,
    "implied_probability": 0.01,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RLBK4GCYM5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VZKJ3PV470",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x365ea48d7238e8f8dd137665e562997d29db9d949d5dc48beac9a34ec97c17d9",
      "question": "Fed Rate Hike by April 2026 Meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nEmergency rate hikes will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "April Meeting: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement of the target federal funds rate following the listed FOMC meeting concluding by July 29, 2026, resolves whether the upper bound increased from December 16, 2025 onward.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-09T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-29T21:45:46Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nEmergency rate hikes will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "federalreserve.gov",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "federalreserve.gov",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 131307.960291,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-90766AF282",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JDC7TRPRX6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VZKJ3PV470",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2dd232eb66334eaf3e232c3b834e072ae1ee320d0bc1ad55ab4ed47be71eeddf",
      "question": "Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nEmergency rate hikes will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June Meeting: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement of the target federal funds rate following the listed FOMC meeting concluding by July 29, 2026, resolves whether the upper bound increased from December 16, 2025 onward.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-09T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-17T20:04:49Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nEmergency rate hikes will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "federalreserve.gov",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 45784.893284000005,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-FE2CBAB187",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-04RZ17H6N6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VZKJ3PV470",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xac550c316d635e7f2dc810de6d6afd531e254b3c9c7d56d32d14337e7c3979e4",
      "question": "Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nEmergency rate hikes will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July Meeting: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement of the target federal funds rate following the listed FOMC meeting concluding by July 29, 2026, resolves whether the upper bound increased from December 16, 2025 onward.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-09T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T20:01:59Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nEmergency rate hikes will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "federalreserve.gov",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "federalreserve.gov",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 782907.173051,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1FDFD09714",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2SNGK9VXW7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VZKJ3PV470",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x73d8a8208d23a74937d114a713d6a56cd4161a1068056c52ac74c8419c99da7c",
      "question": "Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nEmergency rate hikes will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September Meeting: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement of the target federal funds rate following the listed FOMC meeting concluding by July 29, 2026, resolves whether the upper bound increased from December 16, 2025 onward.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-09T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-09T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nEmergency rate hikes will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
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          {
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-16T20:00:34.006Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 203624.270131,
      "volume_total_usd": 1909014.9568559995,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C8C515EA8C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5YC23L2303",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VZKJ3PV470",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x059db22dae2d735516017d47d1def0ea43e5d7221259c3aaa60c090d32566d4e",
      "question": "Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nEmergency rate hikes will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "October Meeting: The Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement of the target federal funds rate following the listed FOMC meeting concluding by July 29, 2026, resolves whether the upper bound increased from December 16, 2025 onward.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-09T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-09T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nEmergency rate hikes will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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        "federal funds rate",
        "interest rates",
        "monetary policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-04RZ17H6N6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T20:01:59Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JDC7TRPRX6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-17T20:04:49Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RLBK4GCYM5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T21:45:46Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-VZKJ3PV470",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}