{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4",
  "slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate in 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fed",
    "economic-policy",
    "fed-rates",
    "macro-single",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether the Federal Reserve raises its target federal funds rate at any point in 2026. Resolution draws from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' official rate decisions through December 2026. Only Polymarket lists this market, pricing a binary yes/no outcome via its UMA Optimistic Oracle. No cross-platform structural comparison is available with a single market listed.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-PW0Y4DJG58",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.65,
    "implied_probability": 0.65
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PW0Y4DJG58",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x80b3af88cb991980e8da1ce86b9794a0957f96ec98c29319dd7ba65e9744d82b",
      "question": "Fed rate hike in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors announces the target federal funds rate decision at its December 2026 meeting.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-09T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-09T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "federalreserve.gov",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.65,
      "implied_probability": 0.65,
      "volume_24h_usd": 69777.394017,
      "volume_total_usd": 4403206.7542410055,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-833A47D979",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-K3JB4CCMJ7",
          "price": 0.08
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-253XFB1NK9",
          "price": 0.034
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-6YVBZNCJ97",
          "price": 0.001
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal funds rate",
        "interest-rates",
        "monetary-policy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}