{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-P1KKDFWZ42",
  "slug": "fedhike",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates? (multi-deadline series, 2026-2028)",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "federal-reserve",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "economic-indicators",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the Federal Reserve will raise its policy rate across four discrete deadline horizons. All four are Kalshi binary contracts, resolved by Kalshi staff against the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' federal funds target announcements. The horizons are tiered: June 2026, December 2026, June 2027, and December 2027. Later-dated contracts structurally embed all earlier outcomes, so prices should form a monotonically non-decreasing probability curve.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LDZQ4KRLX2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.66,
    "implied_probability": 0.66
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B76RJNSQB8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P1KKDFWZ42",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "FEDHIKE-26JUN30",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "Before July 2026",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before July 2026: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement of the federal funds rate target on or before December 31, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve hikes again by Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 10486.72,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-DE597B04C0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "federal reserve funds",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "eligible",
          "reasons": [],
          "bucket": "economic_forecasts",
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LDZQ4KRLX2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P1KKDFWZ42",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "FEDHIKE-26DEC31",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "Before 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before 2027: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement of the federal funds rate target on or before December 31, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve hikes again by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Federal Reserve",
            "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.66,
      "implied_probability": 0.66,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2957.5656,
      "volume_total_usd": 1032609.1908,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1D3933F7ED",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
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      "eligibility_screens": [
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          "status": "eligible",
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          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WBYMS4HR34",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P1KKDFWZ42",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "FEDHIKE-27JUN30",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2027?",
      "description": "Before July 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before July 2027: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement of the federal funds rate target on or before December 31, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2027-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-01T14:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve hikes again by Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 96,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.79,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 545.0684,
      "volume_total_usd": 130946.845,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-09F851A539",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
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        "monetary-policy",
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
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          "status": "eligible",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8B3Q5NJ2D8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P1KKDFWZ42",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "FEDHIKE-27DEC31",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "Before 2028",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Before 2028: Federal Reserve Board of Governors' announcement of the federal funds rate target on or before December 31, 2026, with Kalshi staff determination.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Federal Reserve hikes again by Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Federal Reserve",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
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      "last_price": 0.81,
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      "tags": [
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  "resolution_log": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B76RJNSQB8",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T14:34:43.233183Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0.01,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-P1KKDFWZ42",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}