{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T9CHMHR26",
  "slug": "fl-21-democratic-primary-winner-20260724185824809",
  "question": "Will a Democrat win the FL-21 primary election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "florida-politics",
    "democratic-primary",
    "2026-election",
    "us-house"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Democratic primary winner for Florida's 21st Congressional District, resolving August 18, 2026. All eight markets are Polymarket binary contracts, each pricing one candidate's probability of claiming the nomination. Together they form a mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive set summing to roughly 100%. Resolution follows official party certification, verified through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-CVT6WHRFD8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.57,
    "implied_probability": 0.57
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CVT6WHRFD8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T9CHMHR26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4d3f130f39a6131234d9d78fa7331a631e9787cff687793930da603f84afc3d8",
      "question": "Will James Martin be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "James Martin: The Democratic Party nominee for the listed congressional district will be determined by official party sources including democrats.org by August 18, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.57,
      "implied_probability": 0.57,
      "volume_24h_usd": 59.50000000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 22876.496895,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "democratic primary",
        "fl-21",
        "florida",
        "james martin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4MJ41LRC40",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T9CHMHR26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xafb455a59296be3ef1ddae2c0d35a62ddda88198811ead667cad0e68c45d98a1",
      "question": "Will Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bernard Taylor: The Democratic Party nominee for the listed congressional district will be determined by official party sources including democrats.org by August 18, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
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            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.38,
      "implied_probability": 0.38,
      "volume_24h_usd": 122.99,
      "volume_total_usd": 17127.643641000002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "democratic primary",
        "fl-21",
        "florida"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NQ69MKYK76",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T9CHMHR26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xda66b3e926336e0c8ebb93642fbec7d8c4b83e19c7f625f1b02808e6a08d461b",
      "question": "Will Candidate A be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate A: The Democratic Party nominee for the listed congressional district will be determined by official party sources including democrats.org by August 18, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "democratic primary",
        "fl-21",
        "florida"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-57M7DN2WK6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T9CHMHR26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8c19d27ac17b9e821fc822aac7f7356a3cf0cb58deb420db109888a507f83a95",
      "question": "Will Candidate B be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate B: The Democratic Party nominee for the listed congressional district will be determined by official party sources including democrats.org by August 18, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "candidate",
        "democratic primary",
        "fl-21",
        "florida"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BM7V80ZXX6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T9CHMHR26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb2df5685a80f7e65bc932ef02eb683fbbd69d327227762faab72a86cdf9ae051",
      "question": "Will Candidate C be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate C: The Democratic Party nominee for the listed congressional district will be determined by official party sources including democrats.org by August 18, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "candidate",
        "democratic primary",
        "fl-21",
        "florida"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MRHDMKWNM1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T9CHMHR26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x33c491a8f579940bc2a39f4f2ca8f6410689ff9b0a895afdcc21ac0e6ff6dbaf",
      "question": "Will Candidate D be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate D: The Democratic Party nominee for the listed congressional district will be determined by official party sources including democrats.org by August 18, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "candidate",
        "democratic primary",
        "fl-21",
        "florida"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L9VDTW2SZ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T9CHMHR26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x81971f3d98c02f43a04adc4dd665c93efa1e81a44b37a764f9eea914bbe39b99",
      "question": "Will Candidate E be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate E: The Democratic Party nominee for the listed congressional district will be determined by official party sources including democrats.org by August 18, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "candidate",
        "democratic primary",
        "fl-21",
        "florida"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2P8WG38Y57",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7T9CHMHR26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x20b5c1a78e1065c66ad81537f47d8f992ba99e8dff6a3a377220ec21c56fde12",
      "question": "Will another candidate be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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      "close_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "threshold": null,
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      "also_on": null,
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        "democratic primary",
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        "florida",
        "other candidate"
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-7T9CHMHR26",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}