{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TK95TNCQS8",
  "slug": "foreign-intervention-in-gaza-by",
  "question": "Will there be foreign intervention in Gaza by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "middle-east",
    "military-intervention",
    "2026",
    "international-relations",
    "gaza-conflict"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether a foreign military intervention in Gaza occurs before each successive deadline in 2026. All six are Polymarket binary contracts structured as rolling horizon dates, from March 31 through December 31. Each earlier contract resolves YES if intervention occurs before that cutoff, making later dates redundant upon earlier resolution. Resolution across all contracts follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5YZ8622114",
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    "implied_probability": 0.001,
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LSMFQF6926",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TK95TNCQS8",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xead958c3c7b6843fe15731812a148ee5bd69665b5ae58365d4ccfcc8f20d14e8",
      "question": "Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEnte",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEntering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.  \n\nEgyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. \n\nForeign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify.\n\nQualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-16T22:00:21.614Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 981.39,
      "volume_total_usd": 161311.03814299995,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "question": "Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31?",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEntering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.  \n\nEgyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. \n\nForeign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify.\n\nQualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "price_as_of": "2026-09-02T05:00:38.874Z",
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      "tags": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5DFTDR0XF1",
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      "question": "Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEnt",
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      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
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      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEntering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.  \n\nEgyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. \n\nForeign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify.\n\nQualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "implied_probability": 0.017,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-16T22:00:21.614Z",
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      "tags": [
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        "gaza",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xd4adc3e7d85d7bd90d11e6680fc775376ef568e88ee3fc080a620b2f9f4959fb",
      "question": "Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEnterin",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEntering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.  \n\nEgyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. \n\nForeign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify.\n\nQualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "question": "Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEnterin",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEntering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.  \n\nEgyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. \n\nForeign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify.\n\nQualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEntering",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-07-03T01:07:05Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEntering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.  \n\nEgyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. \n\nForeign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify.\n\nQualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5YZ8622114",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T08:09:13Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-TK95TNCQS8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}