{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TK95TNCQS8",
  "slug": "foreign-intervention-in-gaza-by",
  "question": "Will there be foreign intervention in Gaza by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "middle-east",
    "gaza",
    "foreign-intervention",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether a foreign military intervention in Gaza occurs by each respective deadline in 2026. All four are binary Polymarket contracts with sequential expiries: March 31, April 30, June 30, and December 31. Later-dated contracts subsume earlier ones, creating an implicit term structure of intervention probability. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol for each deadline independently.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5YZ8622114",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LSMFQF6926",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TK95TNCQS8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xead958c3c7b6843fe15731812a148ee5bd69665b5ae58365d4ccfcc8f20d14e8",
      "question": "Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEnte",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEntering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.  \n\nEgyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. \n\nForeign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify.\n\nQualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.3,
      "implied_probability": 0.3,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.35135,
      "volume_total_usd": 2769.5782080000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "foreign military intervention",
        "gaza",
        "geopolitics",
        "intervention",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "platform_market_id": "0xd4adc3e7d85d7bd90d11e6680fc775376ef568e88ee3fc080a620b2f9f4959fb",
      "question": "Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEnterin",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T08:09:13Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEntering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.  \n\nEgyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. \n\nForeign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify.\n\nQualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 364437.9665219997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "foreign military intervention",
        "gaza",
        "geopolitics",
        "intervention",
        "military"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QWPQ3QWRJ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TK95TNCQS8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x601d6370088ac1910bda97d62e8444412d2cef435a247e86d1c608efb0644e3d",
      "question": "Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEnterin",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "April 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-01T06:43:48Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEntering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.  \n\nEgyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. \n\nForeign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify.\n\nQualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 184867.37947700004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "foreign military intervention",
        "gaza",
        "geopolitics",
        "intervention",
        "military"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CH7QNRMZC8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TK95TNCQS8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x17a33720ef8cad0c92d5cb1ac859241c6fed4974854f20408266e1820062b822",
      "question": "Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEntering",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-03T01:07:05Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. \n\nEntering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.  \n\nEgyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. \n\nForeign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify.\n\nQualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 104688.40239100007,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
        "foreign military intervention",
        "gaza",
        "geopolitics",
        "intervention",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CH7QNRMZC8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T08:09:13Z",
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      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-TK95TNCQS8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}