{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4QCT9W9QR2",
  "slug": "gemini-4pt0-released-by-june-30-2026",
  "question": "Will Gemini 4.0 be released in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "tech",
    "ai",
    "google-gemini",
    "ai-model-release",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether Google publicly releases Gemini 4.0 by a specified deadline. The July 31 market prices a longer runway than the June 30 market, creating a natural probability ladder. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against Google's official general availability announcement. The June 30 contract trades at a structural discount to the July 31 contract.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-SYHPVBJJG1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.003,
    "implied_probability": 0.003
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NLJGTF6H07",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4QCT9W9QR2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf55d4ceec7a767d5a2d5361cf5969fc0a409f1c670beef093dadd68bc26fefd3",
      "question": "Gemini 4.0 released by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.\n\nIf a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version nam",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Google's public announcement of general availability for the referenced AI model version, confirmed via official company channels by July 1, 2026, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.\n\nIf a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.\n\nGemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Google",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 19051.127774999994,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-90B170F6AF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "gemini release date",
        "google",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SYHPVBJJG1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4QCT9W9QR2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf39f1e7740f626facbf2a9ef7d961649dd051365dc49a142dd87a012d465ad0d",
      "question": "Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Google's public announcement of general availability for the referenced AI model version, confirmed via official company channels by July 1, 2026, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T21:28:05Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from Google",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 92160.67380000009,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-4A2C81E9D6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "gemini release date",
        "google",
        "release"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SYHPVBJJG1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T21:28:05Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-4QCT9W9QR2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}