{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SRXQ1F784",
  "slug": "gpt-5pt6-released-by",
  "question": "Will GPT-5.6 be released in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "openai",
    "tech",
    "large-language-models",
    "product-release"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether OpenAI releases GPT-5.6 by sequential calendar deadlines spanning May 15 through July 31, 2026. Each binary contract is a distinct strike on the same underlying event, forming an implicit release-date probability curve across the strip. A yes on an earlier date implies yes on all later dates, so relative pricing reveals the market's probability mass around specific release windows. All nine contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, which introduces disputer-delay risk if OpenAI's release definition is contested.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-0BW0R9DF15",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9QD7RK0NN0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SRXQ1F784",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe1a9dc17214a900fab98a6cf77ec97e86cc5e3896320ad85000f5f506ac218c2",
      "question": "GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family wi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T12:25:52Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 85539.67091300005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A0A7FFFF44",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt",
        "openai",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W74GJV4PM8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SRXQ1F784",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb908c2ed23c894ca0d7df536e2b79b72ed8270fa4a8743c4aab1057f4044251d",
      "question": "GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family wi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 15: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-05-15T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-16T15:23:42Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 13156.503797999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-42DF192E48",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt",
        "openai",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SZ8BZVG5V3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SRXQ1F784",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbf262c1abb314e535667d655c8eab84c1a1db54a48f99742de597b241fe38ae1",
      "question": "GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family wi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 22: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-05-22T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-25T01:26:02Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 24673.274124999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-AF7821359E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt",
        "openai",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7HTGP3RMY6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SRXQ1F784",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe69b388ee2691abc5a2b4d66d9212053782c88f30e26f3b791111e562d327224",
      "question": "GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family wi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3791.348916,
      "volume_total_usd": 113661.45132900003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7DC6B0354A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt",
        "openai",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NW51J2WSB2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SRXQ1F784",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xadc76ee95ed51195ce46e91570ef08e6bd7002cb8929bc81de4b64c4f16852e4",
      "question": "GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family wi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 12408.576495,
      "volume_total_usd": 685166.9563059993,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-9E7C2F0453",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt",
        "openai",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9423NG5209",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SRXQ1F784",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x45eee5d7a79040e420462e96c7a9a1ae542170a98c3407d241ecf52938ffd604",
      "question": "GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family wi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 5: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-05T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-06T06:12:45Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 81293.15369199989,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-627AE279DE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt",
        "openai",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0BW0R9DF15",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SRXQ1F784",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1ff94ce9a874202523ac828138d0a2d5ffc2f3899fccbda5505909c51df76277",
      "question": "GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family wi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 15: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-15T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-15T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 14143.071839000027,
      "volume_total_usd": 232657.00848299894,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-902A2BCC2D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt",
        "openai",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PS3QZ2X5X3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SRXQ1F784",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2dfe124d238e2e35733558dfbeb9ca0bb54768d3a19a3cca08b9d0d8c91d8c60",
      "question": "GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family wi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 8: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-08T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T06:04:04Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 143180.01427999994,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F05538BC88",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt",
        "openai",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JPZXMVK0V3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SRXQ1F784",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb8bdd6342f60801098b19be195d6cb867fc881207b604fa2ce27ca5040cc210e",
      "question": "GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family wi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 23: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-22T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-23T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market)\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. \n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 706.187235,
      "volume_total_usd": 3320.6980099999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-787C10D83C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gpt",
        "openai",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NW51J2WSB2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-10T06:00:20.164Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7HTGP3RMY6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JPZXMVK0V3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-23T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0BW0R9DF15",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-15T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PS3QZ2X5X3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-09T06:04:04Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9423NG5209",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-06T06:12:45Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9QD7RK0NN0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-01T12:25:52Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SZ8BZVG5V3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-25T01:26:02Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W74GJV4PM8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-16T15:23:42Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-8SRXQ1F784",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}