{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5QYWXJXKC3",
  "slug": "greece-x-turkey-military-engagement-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will there be a military engagement between Greece and Turkey by June 30?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "greece-turkey",
    "military-conflict",
    "eastern-mediterranean",
    "2026",
    "nato-relations"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether direct military force occurs between Greek and Turkish armed forces before June 30, 2026. A single Polymarket binary prices the yes/no outcome of engagement. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using verified reports of direct military action. No corroborating platform structures this event at a different level or magnitude, limiting cross-market calibration.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5MZDNY7QR7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5MZDNY7QR7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5QYWXJXKC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x707ab64115b0ca83b65bc5137aaa947a11f56885ed82ffcedc3c5b70e1210151",
      "question": "Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military engagement\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves based on verified reports of direct military force between Greek and Turkish military forces by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military engagement\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. \n\nMissiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution (although surface-to-air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 78.439503,
      "volume_total_usd": 1195455.2522440045,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "greece",
        "greece turkey military",
        "military",
        "turkey"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5MZDNY7QR7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-5QYWXJXKC3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}