{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5QYWXJXKC3",
  "slug": "greece-x-turkey-military-engagement-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will there be a military engagement between Greece and Turkey by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "greece-turkey",
    "military-conflict",
    "mediterranean",
    "nato",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether a military engagement between Greece and Turkey occurs within separate 2026 deadlines. The June 30 contract prices near-term escalation risk; the December 31 contract prices full-year risk. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The June 30 market is a strict subset of the December 31 market, so pricing divergence signals market-implied probability of a second-half 2026 escalation event.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5MZDNY7QR7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.002,
    "implied_probability": 0.002,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RZZ31SY897",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5QYWXJXKC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x226e00465b1a3856e164ab5ef5426d180975776d68c10b4be5abf51de0c0bc0f",
      "question": "Greece x Turkey military engagement by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military engagement\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military engagement\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. \n\nMissiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution (although surface-to-air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.083,
      "implied_probability": 0.083,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 183.743608,
      "volume_total_usd": 59774.70028699999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "conflict",
        "geopolitics",
        "greece",
        "greece turkey military",
        "turkey"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5MZDNY7QR7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5QYWXJXKC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x707ab64115b0ca83b65bc5137aaa947a11f56885ed82ffcedc3c5b70e1210151",
      "question": "Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military engagement\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T06:46:35Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military engagement\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. \n\nMissiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution (although surface-to-air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1208151.618146006,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "conflict",
        "geopolitics",
        "greece",
        "greece turkey military",
        "turkey"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5MZDNY7QR7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T06:46:35Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-5QYWXJXKC3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}