{
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    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-6V5DSY8PR4",
  "slug": "grok-4pt4-released-by",
  "question": "Will Grok 4.4 be released in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "tech",
    "ai",
    "grok",
    "xai",
    "product-release"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether xAI releases Grok 4.4 by four sequential deadlines in 2026. Each Polymarket contract is a binary strike on a progressively later date: May 31, June 15, June 30, and July 31. Later-dated contracts imply higher cumulative release probability, creating an implicit term structure. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol across all four strikes.",
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-W7BJS0DRL7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K8JPJ1Q4W2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6V5DSY8PR4",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x3432f269564a3c477c867f17ec22270bbe705c6c373ec7d3c51a929d082f60e6",
      "question": "Grok 4.4 released by May 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market).\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or simi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-1D62BD161F",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Grok 4.4 released by June 15?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market).\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or simi",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xa1016138c2a7bca03712d612e44b08962e013e9c05741ae8c578243fc47cd7f0",
      "question": "Grok 4.4 released by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market).\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or simi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market).\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VF3P8L6555",
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      "question": "Grok 4.4 released by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market).\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or simi",
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}