{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y7M5TF2VT1",
  "slug": "grvt-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch",
  "question": "GRVT FDV one day after launch",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      100000000,
      200000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 50000000,
        "prob": 97
      },
      {
        "threshold": 100000000,
        "prob": 85
      },
      {
        "threshold": 200000000,
        "prob": 49
      },
      {
        "threshold": 300000000,
        "prob": 30
      },
      {
        "threshold": 500000000,
        "prob": 16
      },
      {
        "threshold": 800000000,
        "prob": 7
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1000000000,
        "prob": 5
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "fdv-valuation",
    "grvt",
    "2028"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track GRVT's governance token fully diluted valuation one day after its token launch. Seven Polymarket binaries span strike thresholds from $50M to $1B, forming an implied probability distribution across FDV levels. Each contract resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using total supply multiplied by the most liquid price source at 4:00 UTC. Markets close January 2028; the ladder structure lets traders express views at discrete strike levels rather than a single outcome.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-MPJTN4JVY6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.86,
    "implied_probability": 0.86
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XW1TQ2P8S8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y7M5TF2VT1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0e52820084d4e4eee6da2117e14bd3c9ed59df48b7562c5d0419b35f7778fcf4",
      "question": "GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$100M: The listed company's governance token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by most liquid price source 4:00 PM ET one day after public launch, resolves on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/grvt_io",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/grvt_io",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/grvt_io",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.966,
      "implied_probability": 0.966,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4718.139773,
      "volume_total_usd": 245867.13650000028,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 100000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-F1C1443082",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "grvt",
        "grvt fdv",
        "launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-73FL55H8H9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y7M5TF2VT1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4cb05dbee887c1704889cb5dd86ec06a35579a0f90bb4a5f50df0185636a9ac1",
      "question": "GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$300M: The listed company's governance token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by most liquid price source 4:00 PM ET one day after public launch, resolves on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/grvt_io",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/grvt_io",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/grvt_io",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.68,
      "implied_probability": 0.68,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2721.3,
      "volume_total_usd": 117685.11485200004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 300000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-584FABD3A8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "grvt",
        "grvt fdv",
        "launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y8RV98GDS3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y7M5TF2VT1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x49a713a5ce20c7252072fdcfe86e2869dcefe06c61bbd97df5842b58833c279f",
      "question": "GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$800M: The listed company's governance token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by most liquid price source 4:00 PM ET one day after public launch, resolves on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/grvt_io",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/grvt_io",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/grvt_io",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1263.0324799999994,
      "volume_total_usd": 44588.519441000004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 800000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-5D8EA9E095",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "grvt",
        "grvt fdv",
        "launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LXB5KBC1G4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y7M5TF2VT1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9612305047771c819056cd82e0847002ab8ca95ecf6ea0879e7944d102c5730c",
      "question": "GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$50M: The listed company's governance token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by most liquid price source 4:00 PM ET one day after public launch, resolves on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/grvt_io",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/grvt_io",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/grvt_io",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.984,
      "implied_probability": 0.984,
      "volume_24h_usd": 146.024084,
      "volume_total_usd": 112231.36862699961,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-C2DA36E0CC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "grvt",
        "grvt fdv",
        "launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MPJTN4JVY6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y7M5TF2VT1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0f2158e04dec35565e6b30b7c9fa0e32f80ec29d6662956c21f0b0e498af6fd7",
      "question": "GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$200M: The listed company's governance token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by most liquid price source 4:00 PM ET one day after public launch, resolves on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/grvt_io",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/grvt_io",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/grvt_io",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.86,
      "implied_probability": 0.86,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4814.3266650000005,
      "volume_total_usd": 266141.60228,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 200000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-CDB65BF482",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "grvt",
        "grvt fdv",
        "launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KN29VPR9R0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y7M5TF2VT1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x33733c35cb23de46eb0f4128061d62a23647cb8c7f46d6287c8b2276e0dafb0f",
      "question": "GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$500M: The listed company's governance token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by most liquid price source 4:00 PM ET one day after public launch, resolves on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/grvt_io",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/grvt_io",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/grvt_io",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.25,
      "implied_probability": 0.25,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2415.3552200000004,
      "volume_total_usd": 75835.72875599997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-E262C5C5D3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "grvt",
        "grvt fdv",
        "launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5YHR7MYJ03",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y7M5TF2VT1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0e2703cc8201b20d77574af3335cee74572f658f5b09e9078496570abccb325e",
      "question": "GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1B: The listed company's governance token FDV, calculated as total supply multiplied by most liquid price source 4:00 PM ET one day after public launch, resolves on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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