{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VFHHKCVH97",
  "slug": "hamad-bin-isa-al-khalifa-out-as-bahrain-king",
  "question": "Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa no longer lead Bahrain in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "bahrain",
    "middle-east",
    "leadership-change",
    "2026",
    "gulf-states"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa exits the Bahraini leadership role within specified windows. The June 30, 2026 contract provides a near-term binary, while the December 31, 2026 contract extends the horizon by six months. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The December contract implicitly prices additional tail risk beyond the June cutoff.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-RXK5QWMVY6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RXK5QWMVY6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VFHHKCVH97",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x08b346f4580cbd59cc79416ab4fa00642b3737a04e822d85ef344dd7b0c4ee0a",
      "question": "Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nHamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn announcement of  Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regar",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nHamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn announcement of  Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 660.52476,
      "volume_total_usd": 173458.72900999963,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bahrain",
        "hamad bin isa",
        "middle-east",
        "political-leadership"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CDMRLHC3T7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VFHHKCVH97",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa85a7ef371d55db0807bf95126318bbe25b0f8299f0e9e0f6a061e41964cb912",
      "question": "Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nHamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn announcement of  Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution r",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nHamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn announcement of  Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
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          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3979.391396,
      "volume_total_usd": 106696.18268299998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bahrain",
        "hamad bin isa",
        "middle-east",
        "political-leadership"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RXK5QWMVY6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-VFHHKCVH97",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}