{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-28PJZR97N6",
  "slug": "hi-01-democratic-primary-winner-20260714153639754",
  "question": "Will a Democrat win the Hawaii 01 Democratic Primary by August 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "2026",
    "us-house",
    "hawaii",
    "primary"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Democratic primary winner for Hawaii's 1st Congressional District on August 8, 2026. Polymarket structures the event as a mutually exclusive set of binary contracts, one per named candidate. Probabilities across all contracts should sum to 100%, enabling relative value comparisons across the field. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, using certified primary results as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-K55LT8LX48",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.57,
    "implied_probability": 0.57
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VMCVFQ7576",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-28PJZR97N6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7e1eff6dfe730274a2ec5bbf2a1de394a188c583c114cc302cd22ee71d83b7e6",
      "question": "Will Jennifer Booker be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Jennifer Booker: The candidate winning the Democratic primary for the referenced House district on August 8, 2026, as confirmed by official Democratic Party sources including democrats.org by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10,
      "volume_total_usd": 370.38,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "democratic",
        "hi-01",
        "jennifer booker",
        "primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K55LT8LX48",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-28PJZR97N6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x036642487145f1d14a30551db3057ea5f74e66a1013c0dc85aebbc759561784c",
      "question": "Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Ed Case: The candidate winning the Democratic primary for the referenced House district on August 8, 2026, as confirmed by official Democratic Party sources including democrats.org by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.57,
      "implied_probability": 0.57,
      "volume_24h_usd": 187.32,
      "volume_total_usd": 6615.82858,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "democratic",
        "ed case",
        "hi-01",
        "primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S4Z06X8BQ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-28PJZR97N6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfcbcb1bfdd97c8c9446efeacf15e0432d7ec5182a4eb21066b5c43f776045a38",
      "question": "Will Ben Fatula be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Ben Fatula: The candidate winning the Democratic primary for the referenced House district on August 8, 2026, as confirmed by official Democratic Party sources including democrats.org by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.007,
      "implied_probability": 0.007,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10,
      "volume_total_usd": 363.44849999999997,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ben fatula",
        "democratic",
        "hi-01",
        "primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JSJRF5DWJ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-28PJZR97N6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x229ce1b94fcab1f52380b84bd0a6ec90cf183bee58f6f9c49c56308124318bea",
      "question": "Will Jarrett Keohokalole be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Jarrett Keohokalole: The candidate winning the Democratic primary for the referenced House district on August 8, 2026, as confirmed by official Democratic Party sources including democrats.org by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.46,
      "implied_probability": 0.46,
      "volume_24h_usd": 74.57,
      "volume_total_usd": 3222.048193,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "democratic",
        "hi-01",
        "jarrett keohokalole",
        "primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ML62X3X8S6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-28PJZR97N6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5fbe554c874a745a19421e16f36bdc63dd86bad7f71e38b78d109678f2e7fb87",
      "question": "Will Nicholas Kiswanto be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Nicholas Kiswanto: The candidate winning the Democratic primary for the referenced House district on August 8, 2026, as confirmed by official Democratic Party sources including democrats.org by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10,
      "volume_total_usd": 325.54600000000005,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "democratic",
        "hi-01",
        "nicholas kiswanto",
        "primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P480VNZKR9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-28PJZR97N6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x66d2db8fa3104789c7273c213723749974f9fc1b7459071842ff99823e7f3248",
      "question": "Will Candidate A be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate A: The candidate winning the Democratic primary for the referenced House district on August 8, 2026, as confirmed by official Democratic Party sources including democrats.org by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "candidate",
        "democratic",
        "hi-01",
        "primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L24QRVTKG1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-28PJZR97N6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9996220d364c6d436d78917075cc42ad280aa41ed1dfbe6216e668e01652db30",
      "question": "Will Candidate B be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate B: The candidate winning the Democratic primary for the referenced House district on August 8, 2026, as confirmed by official Democratic Party sources including democrats.org by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "candidate",
        "democratic",
        "hi-01",
        "primary"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MXXC0GZ5W2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-28PJZR97N6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc05935aa36ea88deaecf3fd87613714e2257f848bb41ac6d4b02f77dd1164800",
      "question": "Will Candidate C be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate C: The candidate winning the Democratic primary for the referenced House district on August 8, 2026, as confirmed by official Democratic Party sources including democrats.org by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-08T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-08T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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