{
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-23N8BBXJL5",
  "slug": "houseaz2-26",
  "question": "Will the winner of the Arizona 2nd Congressional District House race be determined by January 4, 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
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    "us-house-2026",
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    "az-02",
    "electoral-outcome"
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  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the 2026 general election outcome for Arizona's 2nd congressional district. Kalshi lists both a Democratic-winner contract and a Republican-winner contract, making them mirror-image binary complements. Both resolve via Kalshi staff determination using Library of Congress official results. Together they price a single seat outcome from opposite directional strikes.",
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  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.69
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-23N8BBXJL5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "HOUSEAZ2-26-D",
      "question": "Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-2?",
      "description": "Jonathan Nez",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Jonathan Nez: The Library of Congress official House race results determine which party's candidate won the referenced seat, resolved by Kalshi staff on January 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the House member sworn in for AZ-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-23N8BBXJL5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "HOUSEAZ2-26-R",
      "question": "Will Republican win the House race for AZ-2?",
      "description": "Eli Crane",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Eli Crane: The Library of Congress official House race results determine which party's candidate won the referenced seat, resolved by Kalshi staff on January 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the House member sworn in for AZ-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-23N8BBXJL5",
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