{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BGY2J6YL26",
  "slug": "houseca22-26",
  "question": "CA-22 House winner?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "california-house-race",
    "us-elections-2026",
    "congressional-elections",
    "ca-22-district",
    "electoral-outcome"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the winner of the 2026 U.S. House race in California's 22nd congressional district. Kalshi lists the contest as two binary markets: one for Democratic candidate Randy Villegas, one for Republican incumbent David Valadao. Both resolve via Kalshi staff determination referencing the Library of Congress. The markets are complementary and should sum near 100%.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TYL0KTSV26",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.902,
    "implied_probability": 0.902,
    "as_of": "2026-09-05T05:00:33.736Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TYL0KTSV26",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BGY2J6YL26",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "HOUSECA22-26-D",
      "question": "Will Democratic win the House race for CA-22?",
      "description": "Randy Villegas",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Randy Villegas: The named candidate's party affiliation resolves per Kalshi staff determination using Library of Congress official election results, by January 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the House member sworn in for CA-22 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Library of Congress",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.congress.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Library of Congress",
            "url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.902,
      "implied_probability": 0.902,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-05T05:00:33.736Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 21599.36416,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "ca-22",
        "democratic",
        "democratic candidate ca",
        "election",
        "house"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TRFRSN5S30",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BGY2J6YL26",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "HOUSECA22-26-R",
      "question": "Will Republican win the House race for CA-22?",
      "description": "David Valadao",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "David Valadao: The named candidate's party affiliation resolves per Kalshi staff determination using Library of Congress official election results, by January 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the House member sworn in for CA-22 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Republican, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Library of Congress",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.congress.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Library of Congress",
            "url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-05T05:00:33.736Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3862.5444,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "ca-22",
        "election",
        "house",
        "republican",
        "republican candidate ca"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "permitted_category": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-08-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-BGY2J6YL26",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}