{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HHCDHR2B03",
  "slug": "houseca49-26",
  "question": "Will the winner of California's 49th House district be determined by 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-house-elections-2027",
    "california-politics",
    "ca-49",
    "electoral-prediction",
    "congressional-races"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the 2027 CA-49 House race outcome. One contract prices a Democratic win; the other prices a Republican win. Both resolve via Kalshi staff determination, sourced to Library of Congress certification. The named candidates are Mike Levin (Democrat) and Armen Kurdian (Republican).",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-DRGXZXX3H1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.98,
    "implied_probability": 0.98
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DRGXZXX3H1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HHCDHR2B03",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "HOUSECA49-26-D",
      "question": "Will a Democrat win the House race for CA-49?",
      "description": "Mike Levin",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Mike Levin: The Library of Congress will determine the winner of the named House race on or after election day, resolving by January 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the House member sworn in for CA-49 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Library of Congress",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.congress.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Library of Congress",
            "url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 86,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.98,
      "implied_probability": 0.98,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 12745.88,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ca-49",
        "california house district",
        "democrat",
        "house",
        "mike levin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
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          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DFDS0PP6J5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HHCDHR2B03",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "HOUSECA49-26-R",
      "question": "Will a Republican win the House race for CA-49?",
      "description": "Armen Kurdian",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Armen Kurdian: The Library of Congress will determine the winner of the named House race on or after election day, resolving by January 4, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the House member sworn in for CA-49 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThis market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Library of Congress",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.congress.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Library of Congress",
            "url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
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        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "caps": [],
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3.8080000000000003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "armen kurdian",
        "ca-49",
        "california house district",
        "house",
        "republican"
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      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
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  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-HHCDHR2B03",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}