{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4F238D6VR7",
  "slug": "how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027",
  "question": "What will be the highest 10-year Treasury yield before 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "finance",
    "fed-rates",
    "economy",
    "treasury-yields",
    "us-economic-indicators"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the 10-year Treasury yield breaches discrete strike thresholds before 2027. Each Polymarket contract is a binary at a separate rate level, from 4.3% to 6.0%, forming an implicit probability distribution across strike thresholds. Higher strikes carry lower implied probabilities, creating a term structure of tail risk in rates. Resolution uses the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Daily Par Yield Curve Rates via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TTT4JVD5V4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.11,
    "implied_probability": 0.11
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DQYCHRVLB6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4F238D6VR7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd3999a7fc56c699a4b67f54e724ab1e50751e3fe13eded12c0aa788a796ea1fa",
      "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.3% before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "4.3%: The Department of the Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates 10-year column determines if the referenced yield reaches or exceeds the listed threshold between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-21T19:54:44Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "home.treasury.gov",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Department of the treasury",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.989,
      "implied_probability": 0.989,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 6036.705823,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 4.3,
      "question_id": "CMX-7B1A336E1F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "10 year treasury",
        "treasury",
        "usdt",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-50SBS88N21",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4F238D6VR7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2f97350969b8f1a5ce9cb88f87cdec36d2b4c7f2687a215aab6667a9b46190b7",
      "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.4% before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "4.4%: The Department of the Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates 10-year column determines if the referenced yield reaches or exceeds the listed threshold between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-03-28T00:34:33Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "home.treasury.gov",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Department of the treasury",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 20930.093690999995,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 4.4,
      "question_id": "CMX-4D7DFB35E2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "10 year treasury",
        "treasury",
        "usdt",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W8QRRLV265",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4F238D6VR7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x443e8c0d2a031fd499f0385b2ea73294fd95bad0cda220b05f6bfb20275b57e9",
      "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "4.5%: The Department of the Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates 10-year column determines if the referenced yield reaches or exceeds the listed threshold between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-15T22:43:29Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "home.treasury.gov",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Department of the treasury",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.998,
      "implied_probability": 0.998,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 37423.046862,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 4.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-06D978613B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "10 year treasury",
        "treasury",
        "usdt",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5YKSWN8189",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4F238D6VR7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x06666ece9c22b1b22e19462794328d3846de26e7ca9d9f824eedb1fc9cb6b1a5",
      "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "4.8%: The Department of the Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates 10-year column determines if the referenced yield reaches or exceeds the listed threshold between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "home.treasury.gov",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Department of the treasury",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.25,
      "implied_probability": 0.25,
      "volume_24h_usd": 158.42999999999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 55342.60162299994,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 4.8,
      "question_id": "CMX-45C43B9F57",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "10 year treasury",
        "treasury",
        "usdt",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JL084MBNH0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4F238D6VR7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x29ab857c87a22182c1ebb51c80f4ad5110c11676f78fac95af1942bceccbfed1",
      "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "5.2%: The Department of the Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates 10-year column determines if the referenced yield reaches or exceeds the listed threshold between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "home.treasury.gov",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Department of the treasury",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.032,
      "implied_probability": 0.032,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 19304.280448999994,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 5.2,
      "question_id": "CMX-DE694356EF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "10 year treasury",
        "treasury",
        "usdt",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9CG7GDWKS5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4F238D6VR7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x48480ff60b7cff52809bd2a60cf87879f474f9eb3036647e35e0c2362dfb74e7",
      "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "5.7%: The Department of the Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates 10-year column determines if the referenced yield reaches or exceeds the listed threshold between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "home.treasury.gov",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Department of the treasury",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.036,
      "implied_probability": 0.036,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3844.3262270000005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 5.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-61B87DC792",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "10 year treasury",
        "treasury",
        "usdt",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q7JFM6T378",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4F238D6VR7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9d98999001bd1128b5ed4a4d7e1b1db0a11ace2926fb64f5ae5e21bef6b7e6b4",
      "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "4.6%: The Department of the Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates 10-year column determines if the referenced yield reaches or exceeds the listed threshold between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-18T22:00:57Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "home.treasury.gov",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Department of the treasury",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.998,
      "implied_probability": 0.998,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 41896.08860399998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 4.6,
      "question_id": "CMX-F2A9A457F3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "10 year treasury",
        "treasury",
        "usdt",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TTT4JVD5V4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4F238D6VR7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0e159c0d672526d1d65f524b1c512185924aac8f781b6c68549c2a17dec953e0",
      "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "5.0%: The Department of the Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates 10-year column determines if the referenced yield reaches or exceeds the listed threshold between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "home.treasury.gov",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Department of the treasury",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 20,
      "volume_total_usd": 62769.034174,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-122820FE59",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "10 year treasury",
        "treasury",
        "usdt",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W42R6YRHP0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4F238D6VR7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1f10b1f557ab254487c22a6b7cd4b4a3b14e561c0017bc6fc58bb81f306ad558",
      "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "5.5%: The Department of the Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates 10-year column determines if the referenced yield reaches or exceeds the listed threshold between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "home.treasury.gov",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Department of the treasury",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.049,
      "implied_probability": 0.049,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2635.3244159999995,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 5.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-26A0343124",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "10 year treasury",
        "treasury",
        "usdt",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0L9H0YN8T4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4F238D6VR7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb969b9e6e74080c23b5c707826db02ecf4325beddc8b6f3f4c1fb8e569ab4e18",
      "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "6.0%: The Department of the Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates 10-year column determines if the referenced yield reaches or exceeds the listed threshold between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "home.treasury.gov",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Department of the treasury",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Department of the Treasury",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.014,
      "implied_probability": 0.014,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2484.712835,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": "CMX-C2B841B516",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "10 year treasury",
        "treasury",
        "usdt",
        "yield"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q7JFM6T378",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-18T22:00:57Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W8QRRLV265",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-15T22:43:29Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-50SBS88N21",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-03-28T00:34:33Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DQYCHRVLB6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-21T19:54:44Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-4F238D6VR7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}