{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NN523F6SZ3",
  "slug": "how-high-will-inflation-get-in-2026",
  "question": "US inflation rate, 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4,
      4.5
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.5,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4.5,
        "prob": 40
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 20
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6,
        "prob": 10
      },
      {
        "threshold": 8,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 10,
        "prob": 4
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "inflation",
    "economy",
    "macroeconomics",
    "price-levels",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether U.S. CPI inflation will breach discrete thresholds ranging from 3% to 10% during 2026. The eight Polymarket contracts form a strike ladder; each binary resolves independently against Bureau of Labor Statistics 12-month CPI readings. Together they imply a market-derived probability distribution over peak inflation outcomes for the year. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, using monthly BLS CPI releases as the authoritative data source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Z7HRQ49CC2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.23,
    "implied_probability": 0.23
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V91TN9R3R9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NN523F6SZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1f61db83c47fc787f44997af53d517cc4775e813b169d0b8ae2ad3bff316d052",
      "question": "Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the December 2026 report is is",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 4%: Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly Consumer Price Index reports for 2026 determine if the 12-month inflation rate exceeds the listed threshold in any month by June 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T15:09:04Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "BLS Consumer Price Index reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official monthly BLS CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 292441.7298519972,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-CE2913A819",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "inflation",
        "us",
        "us inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0X7HMGVFG6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NN523F6SZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x024418fa74e0a95fe9102b5681b73fdc18b7729edbb6550f6322845084c74fea",
      "question": "Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the December 2026 report is is",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 10%: Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly Consumer Price Index reports for 2026 determine if the 12-month inflation rate exceeds the listed threshold in any month by June 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "BLS Consumer Price Index reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official monthly BLS CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.033,
      "implied_probability": 0.033,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 52836.34362000006,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": "CMX-C1A8331EA0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "inflation",
        "us",
        "us inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2VF8F0MWX6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NN523F6SZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa792f029046f2c926ee81c7d9802c21a4a651d33cf7e1bf991ba800ae002f59f",
      "question": "Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the December 2026 report is is",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 5%: Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly Consumer Price Index reports for 2026 determine if the 12-month inflation rate exceeds the listed threshold in any month by June 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "BLS Consumer Price Index reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official monthly BLS CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11,
      "volume_total_usd": 283840.01931799966,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-E0F6A53D61",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "inflation",
        "us",
        "us inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WDCPZ77F31",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NN523F6SZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcd01256212f10704b528e9c86dba7fb9e55a5eeab4a7d7051e25512bb2636b2d",
      "question": "Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the December 2026 report is is",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 3%: Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly Consumer Price Index reports for 2026 determine if the 12-month inflation rate exceeds the listed threshold in any month by June 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-10T15:39:55Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "BLS Consumer Price Index reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official monthly BLS CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 280044.82733599906,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-D052AAD287",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "inflation",
        "us",
        "us inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B7SVKP83K3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NN523F6SZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x04a83249c976c072e7795b7a00e35ff42ab4c68cf55455ce14d61c2025ff4ddd",
      "question": "Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the December 2026 report is is",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 8%: Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly Consumer Price Index reports for 2026 determine if the 12-month inflation rate exceeds the listed threshold in any month by June 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "BLS Consumer Price Index reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official monthly BLS CPI news release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.039,
      "implied_probability": 0.039,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5.38,
      "volume_total_usd": 41410.67382899997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 8,
      "question_id": "CMX-78F75496E7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "inflation",
        "us",
        "us inflation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-87297JXKQ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NN523F6SZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa7abe7ea40a00434c712a8e164a9fd0b2337110659ae1fe7333698d95ef2d657",
      "question": "Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the December 2026 report is is",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Above 6%: Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly Consumer Price Index reports for 2026 determine if the 12-month inflation rate exceeds the listed threshold in any month by June 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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