{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FW1QYF7GN6",
  "slug": "how-high-will-polymarkets-mindshare-go-by-june-30",
  "question": "Polymarket mindshare, June 30, 2026",
  "category": "companies",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      80,
      85
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 70,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 75,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 80,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 85,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 90,
        "prob": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "polymarket",
    "mindshare-metric",
    "2026",
    "tech",
    "business"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Polymarket's mindshare, as measured by Kaito Information Markets Arena, reaches discrete strike thresholds by June 30, 2026. The five contracts are structured as sequential binary strikes at 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, and 90%. Each prices a distinct threshold, creating an implied probability ladder across the range. Resolution uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against Kaito's historical daily mindshare data.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-62J8X3Q713",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7DF7CLJS64",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FW1QYF7GN6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xac11a6e9ff8d5e4aba69dd14fcd1e65a7958be7b8737779af029409ad8fb8b6d",
      "question": "Will Polymarket mindshare hit 70% by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets) at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly finalized daily results from the Polymarket mindshare percentage shown on the Kaito Info Markets page at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets, specifically the daily values for Polymarket under 'Historical Data', will be used to resolve this market. Values will be considered final once the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "70%: Kaito Information Markets Arena's daily mindshare percentage for the named platform, accessed at the historical data section, resolves by June 30, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-07T18:28:43Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets) at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly finalized daily results from the Polymarket mindshare percentage shown on the Kaito Info Markets page at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets, specifically the daily values for Polymarket under 'Historical Data', will be used to resolve this market. Values will be considered final once the value for the subsequent day has been released.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Kaito Info Markets page found at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the Kaito Info Markets page comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on the latest available data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the Kaito Info Markets page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets), which reports the platform’s mindshare as a percentage to two decimal places (e.g., 66.56%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "kaito.ai",
            "url": "https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Kaito Information Markets Arena page",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Kaito Info Markets page",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 47,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 18473.017089999994,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 70,
      "question_id": "CMX-976F03E93F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "market-share",
        "mindshare",
        "polymarket",
        "polymarket mindshare"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G09CVPT871",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FW1QYF7GN6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb7a1b28cb65a04d03ec66047dba56d05a4b101bae51222ae82f82febeb5c7411",
      "question": "Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets) at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly finalized daily results from the Polymarket mindshare percentage shown on the Kaito Info Markets page at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets, specifically the daily values for Polymarket under 'Historical Data', will be used to resolve this market. Values will be considered final once the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "80%: Kaito Information Markets Arena's daily mindshare percentage for the named platform, accessed at the historical data section, resolves by June 30, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-26T10:23:39Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets) at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly finalized daily results from the Polymarket mindshare percentage shown on the Kaito Info Markets page at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets, specifically the daily values for Polymarket under 'Historical Data', will be used to resolve this market. Values will be considered final once the value for the subsequent day has been released.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Kaito Info Markets page found at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the Kaito Info Markets page comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on the latest available data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the Kaito Info Markets page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets), which reports the platform’s mindshare as a percentage to two decimal places (e.g., 66.56%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "kaito.ai",
            "url": "https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Kaito Information Markets Arena page",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Kaito Info Markets page",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 47,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 126893.77718000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 80,
      "question_id": "CMX-2E9F12312F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "market-share",
        "mindshare",
        "polymarket",
        "polymarket mindshare"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2M54VN6V31",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FW1QYF7GN6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe19c7f27a30f68e9e84aba6af25b9f40e53efcd84ba31772e507227fb2b93652",
      "question": "Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets) at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly finalized daily results from the Polymarket mindshare percentage shown on the Kaito Info Markets page at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets, specifically the daily values for Polymarket under 'Historical Data', will be used to resolve this market. Values will be considered final once the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "75%: Kaito Information Markets Arena's daily mindshare percentage for the named platform, accessed at the historical data section, resolves by June 30, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-07T18:35:41Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets) at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly finalized daily results from the Polymarket mindshare percentage shown on the Kaito Info Markets page at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets, specifically the daily values for Polymarket under 'Historical Data', will be used to resolve this market. Values will be considered final once the value for the subsequent day has been released.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Kaito Info Markets page found at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the Kaito Info Markets page comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on the latest available data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the Kaito Info Markets page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets), which reports the platform’s mindshare as a percentage to two decimal places (e.g., 66.56%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "kaito.ai",
            "url": "https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Kaito Information Markets Arena page",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Kaito Info Markets page",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 47,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.998,
      "implied_probability": 0.998,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 19031.074328000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 75,
      "question_id": "CMX-368E5114CC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "market-share",
        "mindshare",
        "polymarket",
        "polymarket mindshare"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-62J8X3Q713",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FW1QYF7GN6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1cfa011b48b27e06aa489362886d8ecdd170e5a2e91b78f52697fcd54cb7be0d",
      "question": "Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets) at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly finalized daily results from the Polymarket mindshare percentage shown on the Kaito Info Markets page at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets, specifically the daily values for Polymarket under 'Historical Data', will be used to resolve this market. Values will be considered final once the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "85%: Kaito Information Markets Arena's daily mindshare percentage for the named platform, accessed at the historical data section, resolves by June 30, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets) at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly finalized daily results from the Polymarket mindshare percentage shown on the Kaito Info Markets page at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets, specifically the daily values for Polymarket under 'Historical Data', will be used to resolve this market. Values will be considered final once the value for the subsequent day has been released.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Kaito Info Markets page found at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the Kaito Info Markets page comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on the latest available data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the Kaito Info Markets page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets), which reports the platform’s mindshare as a percentage to two decimal places (e.g., 66.56%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "kaito.ai",
            "url": "https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Kaito Information Markets Arena page",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Kaito Info Markets page",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 47,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 53.703702,
      "volume_total_usd": 44881.13042899998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 85,
      "question_id": "CMX-DB62D4DB7D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "market-share",
        "mindshare",
        "polymarket",
        "polymarket mindshare"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X861HDS8L0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FW1QYF7GN6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcff7f29133a7eb9682e6887c75b4f394fd12c96bb30327fa8610343f2b086217",
      "question": "Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets) at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly finalized daily results from the Polymarket mindshare percentage shown on the Kaito Info Markets page at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets, specifically the daily values for Polymarket under 'Historical Data', will be used to resolve this market. Values will be considered final once the",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "90%: Kaito Information Markets Arena's daily mindshare percentage for the named platform, accessed at the historical data section, resolves by June 30, 2026 ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets) at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly finalized daily results from the Polymarket mindshare percentage shown on the Kaito Info Markets page at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets, specifically the daily values for Polymarket under 'Historical Data', will be used to resolve this market. Values will be considered final once the value for the subsequent day has been released.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Kaito Info Markets page found at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the Kaito Info Markets page comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on the latest available data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the Kaito Info Markets page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets), which reports the platform’s mindshare as a percentage to two decimal places (e.g., 66.56%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "kaito.ai",
            "url": "https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Kaito Information Markets Arena page",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Kaito Info Markets page",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 47,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1454.97,
      "volume_total_usd": 39521.700780999956,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 90,
      "question_id": "CMX-443AEAC227",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "market-share",
        "mindshare",
        "polymarket",
        "polymarket mindshare"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-62J8X3Q713",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X861HDS8L0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G09CVPT871",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-26T10:23:39Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2M54VN6V31",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-07T18:35:41Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7DF7CLJS64",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-07T18:28:43Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-FW1QYF7GN6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}