{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-D02KL9HMC3",
  "slug": "how-high-will-us-unemployment-go-in-2026",
  "question": "US unemployment rate, 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      null,
      5
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 5,
        "prob": 12
      },
      {
        "threshold": 5.5,
        "prob": 7
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6,
        "prob": 11
      },
      {
        "threshold": 7,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 10,
        "prob": 3
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "labor-market",
    "us-macroeconomics",
    "unemployment-rate",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the Bureau of Labor Statistics' seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate hits discrete strike thresholds in 2026. The five Polymarket contracts form an implied probability ladder across 5.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, 7.0%, and 10.0%, each resolved via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. All five contracts share a January 10, 2026 resolution date. Resolution requires the rate to print at or above each threshold in any 2026 Employment Situation Report.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-S90HN936G0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.105,
    "implied_probability": 0.105
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S90HN936G0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D02KL9HMC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf7cb64502151bde17648b90f53abc3e5338b4193d14a636e225dffcb245b5c16",
      "question": "Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "5.0%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in any 2026 Employment Situation Report reaches the listed threshold or does not by December 2026 report release.",
      "close_at": "2026-01-10T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-10T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. \n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.105,
      "implied_probability": 0.105,
      "volume_24h_usd": 114.982271,
      "volume_total_usd": 121835.86915199998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-BE209F7137",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "labor",
        "unemployment",
        "us",
        "us unemployment rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-01J7T223H1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D02KL9HMC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x21a83ad85d5579df54f4659abf1a4e7722156b0b04204e77ecfa6c3533ceb5e5",
      "question": "Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "5.5%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in any 2026 Employment Situation Report reaches the listed threshold or does not by December 2026 report release.",
      "close_at": "2026-01-10T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-10T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. \n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.076,
      "implied_probability": 0.076,
      "volume_24h_usd": 131.578946,
      "volume_total_usd": 199170.38941300003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-CE4A08BFEA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "labor",
        "unemployment",
        "us",
        "us unemployment rate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CM2LP5S976",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D02KL9HMC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1b0a4870cd50bdf9e9e5bc9f8ad42b011fadd554610f99699db34dca6d09fde1",
      "question": "Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "6.0%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in any 2026 Employment Situation Report reaches the listed threshold or does not by December 2026 report release.",
      "close_at": "2026-01-10T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-10T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. \n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bls.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5.81,
      "volume_total_usd": 74369.55555800001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": "CMX-C13C6525E9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "labor",
        "unemployment",
        "us",
        "us unemployment rate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RSCCH9F8W1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D02KL9HMC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x109e5e08aee879d79a67aa1f22a3bb4684165a64b3fd9c85abecdbb28bf24cf5",
      "question": "Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "7.0%: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in any 2026 Employment Situation Report reaches the listed threshold or does not by December 2026 report release.",
      "close_at": "2026-01-10T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-10T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. \n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
        "sources": [
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          {
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "implied_probability": 0.079,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 29723.020254000017,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
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      "question_id": "CMX-727D6D4815",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "unemployment",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2NTK3000D9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-D02KL9HMC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x086ffc767cb5b55cedc4a98f7c2e4b279f5f805ed93929493054334ebc74af1f",
      "question": "Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-01-10T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-10T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. \n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm",
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      "question_id": "CMX-73451E692D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "unemployment",
        "us",
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  "_provenance": {
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    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}