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  "slug": "how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027",
  "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield reach below 2.0% before 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "treasury-yields",
    "economic-indicators",
    "2026",
    "fed-policy",
    "fixed-income"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the 10-year Treasury yield breaches discrete strike thresholds before end-2026. Nine binary contracts span strikes from 1.0% to 4.0%, forming an implied probability distribution over yield-floor outcomes. The nested structure means higher-strike contracts must resolve YES before lower-strike ones can. Resolution uses the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
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    "as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z"
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.0% before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
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      "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027?",
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      "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 2.0% before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
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      "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?",
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