{
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    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BD6QB5GC44",
  "slug": "how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027",
  "question": "10-year US Treasury yield minimum, December 31, 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "below",
    "implied_band": [
      1,
      4
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    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1,
        "prob": 4
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      {
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        "prob": 15
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      {
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        "prob": 18
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        "prob": 26
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        "prob": 23
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      {
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        "prob": 27
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      {
        "threshold": 3.8,
        "prob": 45
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      {
        "threshold": 3.9,
        "prob": 44
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      {
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        "prob": 100
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  },
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "treasury-yields",
    "economic-indicators",
    "2026",
    "fed-policy",
    "fixed-income"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the 10-year Treasury yield breaches discrete downside strike thresholds before end-2026. The nine strikes span 1.0% to 4.0%, forming an implied probability distribution over how far yields could fall. All markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates. The resolve_at timestamp of February 28, 2026 precedes the stated close_at of December 31, 2026, creating a potential resolution timing discrepancy traders should verify.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-CVYG6F4SW4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.016,
    "implied_probability": 0.016
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "platform_market_id": "0x665798d9aaad695f3b7672e17f814ca0ac30f721d8671b0bad536931b869f246",
      "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.0% before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "4.0%: The Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates 10-year column determines if the yield fell below the threshold on any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-28T00:03:43Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 31759.25017,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
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      "question_id": "CMX-EDBAFCACAB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027?",
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      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
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      "question_id": "CMX-B88D5A8194",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x0828a02d7e64a7f79fde3e895356b6b102629344f801d930cb748a1e3a566c15",
      "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
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      "question_id": "CMX-E44237EF8F",
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      "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"10 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).",
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      "question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?",
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