{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNTLCWF6Y5",
  "slug": "how-low-will-trumps-approval-rating-go-in-2026",
  "question": "Trump approval rating, 2026",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "below",
    "implied_band": [
      20,
      40
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 20,
        "prob": 3
      },
      {
        "threshold": 25,
        "prob": 6
      },
      {
        "threshold": 30,
        "prob": 7
      },
      {
        "threshold": 35,
        "prob": 39
      },
      {
        "threshold": 40,
        "prob": 100
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump",
    "approval-ratings",
    "us-politics",
    "2026",
    "polling"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Trump's approval rating breaches discrete downside thresholds in 2026. Each Polymarket binary asks if the Silver Bulletin aggregator registers a reading at or below a specific strike, from 40% down to 20%. The markets form a structured probability ladder across five strike levels. Resolution uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle referencing Silver Bulletin's approval rating aggregator as the authoritative data source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-17WJH05QP4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.023,
    "implied_probability": 0.023
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KV9J4G9R86",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNTLCWF6Y5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdd5dbe7f7eb7bc264824bae08927385dbff859e4bcb784025d95d01bc190b869",
      "question": "Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nNote that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "40%: Silver Bulletin's approval rating aggregator resolves the named candidate's approval rating on any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026, with finalized data once the subsequent data point is published.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-03-28T00:14:39Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nNote that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.\n\nIf the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "natesilver.net",
            "url": "https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Silver Bulletin",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Silver Bulletin",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 19501.13481000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "approval",
        "politics",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J78NFJPV07",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNTLCWF6Y5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd2e96e78b5a59e12b4d60d6b8426aa93dc6edf2ed7d711509481050c347856b3",
      "question": "Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nNote that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "35%: Silver Bulletin's approval rating aggregator resolves the named candidate's approval rating on any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026, with finalized data once the subsequent data point is published.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nNote that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.\n\nIf the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "natesilver.net",
            "url": "https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Silver Bulletin",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Silver Bulletin",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.33,
      "implied_probability": 0.33,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 62362.21623999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 35,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "approval",
        "politics",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SCXHPDNVW4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNTLCWF6Y5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0065f53147e934a9abe047976407bb96bde0a70139af5ae93cfe1a2fdf958afa",
      "question": "Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nNote that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "30%: Silver Bulletin's approval rating aggregator resolves the named candidate's approval rating on any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026, with finalized data once the subsequent data point is published.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nNote that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.\n\nIf the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "natesilver.net",
            "url": "https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Silver Bulletin",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Silver Bulletin",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6754.3553349999975,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 30,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "approval",
        "politics",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S4WFBWX9Z2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNTLCWF6Y5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd34dad6f20237e9eda3b001e2adcac86661638a22c7d9898b108606366d93dc7",
      "question": "Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nNote that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "25%: Silver Bulletin's approval rating aggregator resolves the named candidate's approval rating on any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026, with finalized data once the subsequent data point is published.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nNote that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.\n\nIf the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin",
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          {
            "name": "Silver Bulletin",
            "url": null,
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          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2645.840915,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "politics",
        "trump",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-17WJH05QP4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNTLCWF6Y5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9d8dc96b5bfa0fcd8f2f57e6a8c51d0ef876219eab23023545c07928cb30d49a",
      "question": "Will Trump's approval rating hit 20% in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nNote that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "20%: Silver Bulletin's approval rating aggregator resolves the named candidate's approval rating on any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026, with finalized data once the subsequent data point is published.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nNote that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.\n\nIf the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin",
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            "url": "https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Silver Bulletin",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "RealClearPolitics",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.023,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3027.041374999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "approval",
        "politics",
        "trump",
        "trump approval rating"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KV9J4G9R86",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-03-28T00:14:39Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-VNTLCWF6Y5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}