{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FM6Z943W4",
  "slug": "how-many-cities-will-waymo-operate-in-by-december-31-20260626203648850",
  "question": "How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "autonomous-vehicles",
    "waymo",
    "ai",
    "tech",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the number of distinct cities where Waymo's ride-hailing service is publicly available on December 31, 2026. Seven mutually exclusive Polymarket brackets span fewer than 12 cities to 32 or more, forming a full probability distribution over Waymo's geographic footprint. Together the brackets function as a discrete city-count range instrument. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using publicly available app or partner access as the city-count criterion.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-K8QFBNQQQ6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.12
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T2ZY3X9N95",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FM6Z943W4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x89e441e04d0301cc299138943465880cd4dc261ba6763677c3cbfed635595116",
      "question": "Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<12: The number of distinct cities where the referenced ride-hailing service is publicly available through its app or partner platforms on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify.\n\nIf Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source is official information from Waymo, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. ",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.069,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10,
      "volume_total_usd": 3637.337434,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 12,
      "question_id": "CMX-7FCB3D5084",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "autonomous-vehicles",
        "expansion",
        "waymo"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2JBQKP8Q19",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FM6Z943W4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf60181f7e19c509a25f92a7f174eb9c4f0eac7ca9aa1338c8a1506efa9378693",
      "question": "Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "12-15: The number of distinct cities where the referenced ride-hailing service is publicly available through its app or partner platforms on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify.\n\nIf Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source is official information from Waymo, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. ",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "caps": [
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      "implied_probability": 0.226,
      "volume_24h_usd": 561.529645,
      "volume_total_usd": 5860.937044999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-EE4AB5D188",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "expansion",
        "waymo"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T80PSVK5F9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FM6Z943W4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x08cab87b2f6dfdefd78c05ec4524d6f235d979c694327d67e112d5e6a2fcd01f",
      "question": "Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "16-19: The number of distinct cities where the referenced ride-hailing service is publicly available through its app or partner platforms on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify.\n\nIf Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source is official information from Waymo, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. ",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.3,
      "implied_probability": 0.3,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10,
      "volume_total_usd": 4855.736706000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-80C8C0593B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "autonomous-vehicles",
        "expansion",
        "waymo"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K8QFBNQQQ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FM6Z943W4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf2447952276c81576a4645b9d8b379b830afdb11d57d57f77baad1c1a392c55f",
      "question": "Will Waymo operate in 20-23 cities on December 31 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "20-23: The number of distinct cities where the referenced ride-hailing service is publicly available through its app or partner platforms on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify.\n\nIf Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source is official information from Waymo, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. ",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Waymo",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10,
      "volume_total_usd": 7926.675729000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1075D5F8AB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "autonomous-vehicles",
        "expansion",
        "waymo"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GMLS3S7JC6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FM6Z943W4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf7e4a83694c263a7361526cc34cc2abe0fabacc9a8e972c92e079c24eed1ecbf",
      "question": "Will Waymo operate in 24-27 cities on December 31 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "24-27: The number of distinct cities where the referenced ride-hailing service is publicly available through its app or partner platforms on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify.\n\nIf Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source is official information from Waymo, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. ",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
          {
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10,
      "volume_total_usd": 5297.290799,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-B708261734",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "expansion",
        "waymo"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P053KSB0Z0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FM6Z943W4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa879b42d7cefdf60584f55d3a224611e78233319bc871fde05a038eae2a4d1f0",
      "question": "Will Waymo operate in 28-31 cities on December 31 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "28-31: The number of distinct cities where the referenced ride-hailing service is publicly available through its app or partner platforms on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify.\n\nIf Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source is official information from Waymo, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. ",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10,
      "volume_total_usd": 951.8018709999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "question_id": "CMX-FE74FC7D4D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "autonomous-vehicles",
        "expansion",
        "waymo"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2S5X8BS5D8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3FM6Z943W4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x12b0104927420bbc7a7a7ef184ccc47e0a1125535a6e5d3634294fb254b4924e",
      "question": "Will Waymo operate in 32 or more cities on December 31 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "32+: The number of distinct cities where the referenced ride-hailing service is publicly available through its app or partner platforms on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify.\n\nIf Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source is official information from Waymo, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. ",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10,
      "volume_total_usd": 1794.27822,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 32,
      "question_id": "CMX-1C356A4C70",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "autonomous-vehicles",
        "expansion",
        "waymo"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3FM6Z943W4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}