{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VYHMPBSFD9",
  "slug": "how-many-coins-launched-in-2026-end-the-year-in-the-top-100",
  "question": "Will at least X coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100 by market capitalization by December 31, 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "market-cap-ranking",
    "coin-launches",
    "2026-cohort",
    "year-end-performance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track how many cryptocurrencies launched in 2026 will rank in CoinGecko's top 100 by market capitalization on December 31, 2026. Five binary strike thresholds span the range: over 4, 6, 8, 10, and 12 coins. Each contract is structured as a discrete yes/no question at a different count level, together forming an implied distribution over outcomes. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing CoinGecko's rankings at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XJ9SXB7N79",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.7,
    "implied_probability": 0.7
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HGGR105W21",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VYHMPBSFD9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4cd2efcda453640482f78b9ca16d49f3e6c4d1411b434d262ac7c11674db3000",
      "question": "Over 8 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "CoinGecko's Top 100 market capitalization rankings on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET determine which coins launched in 2026 qualify.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "Coingecko",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 47,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.3,
      "implied_probability": 0.3,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1746.611261,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 8,
      "question_id": "CMX-32CA20FD95",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "coins launched ending",
        "cryptocurrency",
        "market_cap",
        "new_launches"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XJ9SXB7N79",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VYHMPBSFD9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x022a45ba6957b5ade426720527f43577439948c2225d4f89b2b9fda32c582e70",
      "question": "Over 6 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "CoinGecko's Top 100 market capitalization rankings on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET determine which coins launched in 2026 qualify.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "Coingecko",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 47,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.7,
      "implied_probability": 0.7,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 34133.69329499999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": "CMX-5AC67271FD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "coins launched ending",
        "cryptocurrency",
        "market_cap",
        "new_launches"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9TP7XMXX27",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VYHMPBSFD9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9015110adf621e955f7ae648813db4360069230381d81065a1fd3925941ab41d",
      "question": "Over 12 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "CoinGecko's Top 100 market capitalization rankings on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET determine which coins launched in 2026 qualify.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "Coingecko",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 47,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.33,
      "implied_probability": 0.33,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2641.6823220000006,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 12,
      "question_id": "CMX-BE84639754",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "coins launched ending",
        "cryptocurrency",
        "market_cap",
        "new_launches"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8QGDVKCCT6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VYHMPBSFD9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc8bc89e69ae5bb3d27053839ce727ddec0ecda38528a9b231cb5b5756beba474",
      "question": "Over 4 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "CoinGecko's Top 100 market capitalization rankings on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET determine which coins launched in 2026 qualify.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "Coingecko",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 47,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.79,
      "implied_probability": 0.79,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 26672.571389999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-B6E8CE943E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "coins launched ending",
        "cryptocurrency",
        "market_cap",
        "new_launches"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SKNS55ML24",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VYHMPBSFD9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf864185e80337ec2f75ffa80d18144ab60a293baf4ea6a3507319cf9a64c7f6d",
      "question": "Over 10 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "CoinGecko's Top 100 market capitalization rankings on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET determine which coins launched in 2026 qualify.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "Coingecko",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 47,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.3,
      "implied_probability": 0.3,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 27678.746375000013,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": "CMX-A4BC259C7B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "coins launched ending",
        "cryptocurrency",
        "market_cap",
        "new_launches"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-VYHMPBSFD9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}