{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VYHMPBSFD9",
  "slug": "how-many-coins-launched-in-2026-end-the-year-in-the-top-100",
  "question": "Coins launched in 2026 ending the year in top 100, December 31, 2026",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      4,
      6
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 4,
        "prob": 71
      },
      {
        "threshold": 6,
        "prob": 42
      },
      {
        "threshold": 8,
        "prob": 30
      },
      {
        "threshold": 10,
        "prob": 30
      },
      {
        "threshold": 12,
        "prob": 33
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "crypto-prices",
    "crypto",
    "market-cap-rankings",
    "token-launches",
    "2026-cohort",
    "2027-resolution"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track how many crypto assets launched in 2026 will rank in CoinGecko's top 100 by market capitalization on December 31, 2026. All five markets are Polymarket binary strikes at thresholds of 4, 6, 8, 10, and 12 coins, forming an implied probability distribution over the final count. Together they price the tail of new-token penetration into large-cap rankings. Resolution uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against CoinGecko's published rankings at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XJ9SXB7N79",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.19,
    "implied_probability": 0.19,
    "as_of": "2026-08-06T10:00:41.025Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8QGDVKCCT6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VYHMPBSFD9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc8bc89e69ae5bb3d27053839ce727ddec0ecda38528a9b231cb5b5756beba474",
      "question": "Over 4 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": ">4: CoinGecko's Top 100 market capitalization rankings at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026 determines how many coins launched in 2026 rank in the top 100, excluding stablecoins, liquid staking tokens, liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic assets.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "coingecko.com",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "coingecko.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.71,
      "implied_probability": 0.71,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-05T01:00:40.652Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 26698.900498999996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": "CMX-B6E8CE943E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "coins launched top",
        "cryptocurrency",
        "market cap ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XJ9SXB7N79",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VYHMPBSFD9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x022a45ba6957b5ade426720527f43577439948c2225d4f89b2b9fda32c582e70",
      "question": "Over 6 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": ">6: CoinGecko's Top 100 market capitalization rankings at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026 determines how many coins launched in 2026 rank in the top 100, excluding stablecoins, liquid staking tokens, liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic assets.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "coingecko.com",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "coingecko.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.19,
      "implied_probability": 0.19,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-06T10:00:41.025Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 34147.213295,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": "CMX-5AC67271FD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "coins launched top",
        "cryptocurrency",
        "market cap ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HGGR105W21",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VYHMPBSFD9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4cd2efcda453640482f78b9ca16d49f3e6c4d1411b434d262ac7c11674db3000",
      "question": "Over 8 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": ">8: CoinGecko's Top 100 market capitalization rankings at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026 determines how many coins launched in 2026 rank in the top 100, excluding stablecoins, liquid staking tokens, liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic assets.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "coingecko.com",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "coingecko.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.3,
      "implied_probability": 0.3,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-18T21:00:57.119Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1747.2212610000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 8,
      "question_id": "CMX-32CA20FD95",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "coins launched top",
        "cryptocurrency",
        "market cap ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SKNS55ML24",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VYHMPBSFD9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf864185e80337ec2f75ffa80d18144ab60a293baf4ea6a3507319cf9a64c7f6d",
      "question": "Over 10 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": ">10: CoinGecko's Top 100 market capitalization rankings at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026 determines how many coins launched in 2026 rank in the top 100, excluding stablecoins, liquid staking tokens, liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic assets.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "coingecko.com",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "coingecko.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.3,
      "implied_probability": 0.3,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-05T01:00:40.652Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 27703.74637500001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": "CMX-A4BC259C7B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "coins launched top",
        "cryptocurrency",
        "market cap ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9TP7XMXX27",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VYHMPBSFD9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9015110adf621e955f7ae648813db4360069230381d81065a1fd3925941ab41d",
      "question": "Over 12 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": ">12: CoinGecko's Top 100 market capitalization rankings at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026 determines how many coins launched in 2026 rank in the top 100, excluding stablecoins, liquid staking tokens, liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic assets.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).\n\nStablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "coingecko.com",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "coingecko.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.21,
      "implied_probability": 0.21,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-01T12:00:42.415Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2656.2423219999996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 12,
      "question_id": "CMX-BE84639754",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "coins launched top",
        "cryptocurrency",
        "market cap ranking"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-VYHMPBSFD9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}