{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQZQ7HKT75",
  "slug": "how-many-democratic-house-members-not-running-in-2026",
  "question": "How many Democratic House members will not be running in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "congress",
    "elections",
    "2026-midterms",
    "house-retirements",
    "democratic-party"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the count of Democratic U.S. House members announcing retirement or non-reelection by August 31, 2026. Polymarket structures the event as seven mutually exclusive discrete tiers spanning fewer than 20 retirements to 40 or more. Together the tiers form a full probability distribution over the retirement count. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, with the authoritative count sourced from publicly announced non-reelection decisions.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-BG0SQ6XQP7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.044
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQZQ7HKT75",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4d79d3068bdc6bbb2101462561d64c54773947d9c776d1ad637655c60ecbe5b9",
      "question": "Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 20 and 23 inclusive?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "20–23: The total count of Democratic U.S. House members announcing retirement or non-reelection by August 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.273,
      "implied_probability": 0.273,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5816.332766999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "democratic house members",
        "house",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQZQ7HKT75",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8b02a7cf1b24a5aa69c9eb526a22cd4518cd6906d2cb06d0c6127d80aabff988",
      "question": "Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 28 and 31 inclusive?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "28–31: The total count of Democratic U.S. House members announcing retirement or non-reelection by August 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1279.8578249999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 28,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "democratic house members",
        "house",
        "us-politics"
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQZQ7HKT75",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3bd41128192b018ad23b6b7968d1365e05bb1dcedfc5d3df84545cee19448b7c",
      "question": "Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "36–39: The total count of Democratic U.S. House members announcing retirement or non-reelection by August 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.102,
      "implied_probability": 0.102,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 873.9520810000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 36,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "democratic house members",
        "house",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BG0SQ6XQP7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQZQ7HKT75",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x45c8cc04e83663319bca62cb39b4b45ec0afdc8400f9412097ac375f660cc43e",
      "question": "Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be fewer than 20?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<20: The total count of Democratic U.S. House members announcing retirement or non-reelection by August 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.044,
      "implied_probability": 0.044,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 17243.86225,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "democratic house members",
        "house",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RPSLS76834",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQZQ7HKT75",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb24ae6117a3b68c79c085aa102a5054073dbd5c131db1774f1e41230ad7d67bf",
      "question": "Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 24 and 27 inclusive?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "24–27: The total count of Democratic U.S. House members announcing retirement or non-reelection by August 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.27,
      "implied_probability": 0.27,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4478.5280809999995,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 24,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "democratic house members",
        "house",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VG2G2S7KT1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQZQ7HKT75",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x17087f5dc3bbb1d35b3582b3354a27348faaeb4c20fdc73b09112bedf47988ed",
      "question": "Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "32–35: The total count of Democratic U.S. House members announcing retirement or non-reelection by August 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 53,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3883.1949999999993,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 32,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "democratic house members",
        "house",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WNGPWXZRZ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQZQ7HKT75",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2b44c7d1b68f099a34610b45f560cff2454a926db705d1755f486bb0f78db5a3",
      "question": "Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be 40 or more?",
      "description": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "40+: The total count of Democratic U.S. House members announcing retirement or non-reelection by August 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:\n• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat\n• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat\n• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)\n\nOnly members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.\n\nThis market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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