{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWV0YP91Q5",
  "slug": "how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-2026",
  "question": "Will Israel strike more than one country in 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "israel",
    "military-strikes",
    "international-conflict",
    "2026",
    "count-based"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the count of distinct sovereign territories struck by Israel across calendar year 2026. Polymarket structures the event as 16 discrete binary contracts, each pricing a specific strike-count outcome from zero to fifteen-or-more. Together they form an implied probability distribution over geographic escalation breadth. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, with the key definitional question being what qualifies as a strike on sovereign territory versus other forms of military action.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-16LWH81LW1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.014,
    "implied_probability": 0.014
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-94Q7C8Y4J0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWV0YP91Q5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5c8925a18e7f141ef6e34d5932ba6044717afbd22bdcde867ca61fd2bc169d06",
      "question": "Will Israel strike 0 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qual",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "0: The market resolves according to the number of different countries' sovereign territory on which the named country initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 10, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-02T17:29:01Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 38308.376026,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israel military strikes",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HM5KR6JVY6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWV0YP91Q5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4437c8690e2edae1ab7acb0dcb40e536109ae6366e630d97f0bd764c9545ae57",
      "question": "Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qual",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "4: The market resolves according to the number of different countries' sovereign territory on which the named country initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 10, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.323,
      "implied_probability": 0.323,
      "volume_24h_usd": 123.78212,
      "volume_total_usd": 1218690.8174480018,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israel military strikes",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LDG144QT99",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWV0YP91Q5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf0aa26f04c3531f407c1e2bf6790a9e7d5e63885d14f0c262b5dd7556d9baeac",
      "question": "Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qual",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "8: The market resolves according to the number of different countries' sovereign territory on which the named country initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 10, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 528971.442623,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 8,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israel military strikes",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-43CF8MB8Q8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWV0YP91Q5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc0016ebf2013957e354d646ec8c7977b6102337b25e0676895912a675ad1b785",
      "question": "Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qual",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "12: The market resolves according to the number of different countries' sovereign territory on which the named country initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 10, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": 54.853899,
      "volume_total_usd": 218038.9711350004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 12,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israel military strikes",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8QR5PTXPF6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWV0YP91Q5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x32acbaf5446427b5866a608295cedced41efadb9d7db5cd295279935d04835c6",
      "question": "Will Israel strike 1 country in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qual",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The market resolves according to the number of different countries' sovereign territory on which the named country initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 10, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-28T13:12:07Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.028,
      "implied_probability": 0.028,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 87273.092813,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israel military strikes",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-84C4QJP949",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWV0YP91Q5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xaddf36ab28b5c372e4ed06a17767eefd101b363b846cf3c223efc31f8cd260a8",
      "question": "Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qual",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "5: The market resolves according to the number of different countries' sovereign territory on which the named country initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 10, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.417,
      "implied_probability": 0.417,
      "volume_24h_usd": 12.28,
      "volume_total_usd": 541634.6430770009,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israel military strikes",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WCMSHZSW29",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWV0YP91Q5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe7ef027386c6ba19db343b5b685e19035afccaf8891c814e6fbdc14dc259c9a3",
      "question": "Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qual",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "9: The market resolves according to the number of different countries' sovereign territory on which the named country initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 10, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 234316.477474,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 9,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israel military strikes",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4HBFD7PCY2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWV0YP91Q5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0e4ade6df320ac6a452cb8bbed1e875ea29335b2d57e13df16f0d21e29ef3fb4",
      "question": "Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qual",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "13: The market resolves according to the number of different countries' sovereign territory on which the named country initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 10, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.005,
      "implied_probability": 0.005,
      "volume_24h_usd": 317.7834500000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 334296.7495379991,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 13,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israel military strikes",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3KCX8783Q7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWV0YP91Q5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3d7f5a6101377e34b9f8d1d62b793288668380bd821932ccacb84f788c72f5da",
      "question": "Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qual",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "2: The market resolves according to the number of different countries' sovereign territory on which the named country initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 10, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-03-20T10:39:53Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israel military strikes",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0TK18RCS21",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWV0YP91Q5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x85d949e1aa73caddf263dc356e6f93125f9889dc3af14b243b3428823e2e0a81",
      "question": "Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qual",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "6: The market resolves according to the number of different countries' sovereign territory on which the named country initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 10, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.036,
      "implied_probability": 0.036,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 647912.8858299992,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 6,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israel military strikes",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1RGLMZ9DB6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWV0YP91Q5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd19d541ce5fe1970e9b19976bae0dd259eeaa558129d5373e6479af72e8f412e",
      "question": "Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qual",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The market resolves according to the number of different countries' sovereign territory on which the named country initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 10, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 398917.64101799997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israel military strikes",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-210RHR3TF5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWV0YP91Q5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd5f6a95f759ac6a3bbde671ce3eca5261385d70e95f4c3bb8233fc86e08028d2",
      "question": "Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qual",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "14: The market resolves according to the number of different countries' sovereign territory on which the named country initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 10, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 190784.34582099976,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 14,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israel military strikes",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-16LWH81LW1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWV0YP91Q5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x497a043a5a848906d653e4a60e34df7131a9d7e059ce2ce70f05b4311360c9cf",
      "question": "Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qual",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "3: The market resolves according to the number of different countries' sovereign territory on which the named country initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 10, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-10T01:36:03Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.014,
      "implied_probability": 0.014,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1962925.8743419982,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israel military strikes",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6241CCLS29",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWV0YP91Q5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9417863b1b7a9c394ae8f95b12445d3aebf9a916e9a7201f147af90c2b87f668",
      "question": "Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qual",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "7: The market resolves according to the number of different countries' sovereign territory on which the named country initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 10, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.017,
      "implied_probability": 0.017,
      "volume_24h_usd": 100,
      "volume_total_usd": 616068.1329189995,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israel military strikes",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RVQ2HGW3T7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWV0YP91Q5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0a43b74be16caef0ab4543343cf854abbe5321f0517b29437f56c9da2d96fa60",
      "question": "Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qual",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "11: The market resolves according to the number of different countries' sovereign territory on which the named country initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 10, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 131972.97992700012,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 11,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israel military strikes",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-272FBQ7957",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NWV0YP91Q5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc89de60e9a7233124b8487e46909fed1e53b502f201955c892cf93f400cf573c",
      "question": "Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qual",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "15+: The market resolves according to the number of different countries' sovereign territory on which the named country initiates drone, missile, or air strikes between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle by May 10, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 53.489,
      "volume_total_usd": 185219.2489169997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 15,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "israel",
        "israel military strikes",
        "military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-16LWH81LW1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-10T01:36:03Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3KCX8783Q7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-03-20T10:39:53Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8QR5PTXPF6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-02-28T13:12:07Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-94Q7C8Y4J0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-02T17:29:01Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-NWV0YP91Q5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}